[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude choppy on geopolitics with losses this morning amid ceasefire efforts

Crude futures gapped higher on the open and surged higher, with WTI May’26 and Brent Jun’26 topping at USD 115.48/bbl and USD 111.89/bbl, respectively. The upside came following a Truth post by President Trump threatening Iran that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Trump also posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”. Despite the threats, he also told Fox News that he can get a deal with Iran by Monday and that Iran is negotiating now. The upside was then completely pared back throughout the APAC session following an Axios report citing sources with knowledge of the talks, that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
On the ceasefire front, hopes have risen following a Reuters report highlighting comments by the Pakistan Army Chief stating that an immediate ceasefire, with the reopening of Hormuz, is on the table if a final agreement is reached on Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. However, an end to hostilities needs to be agreed on by Monday. Furthermore, a senior Iranian official confirmed the receipt of Pakistan’s proposal and that it is being reviewed. Crude futures now trade with losses, with Brent Jun’26 briefly slipping below USD 108/bbl.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ eight members agreed to raise quotas by 206k bpd for May, although the increase is seen to be symbolic and will predominantly exist on paper as key members are unable to boost output due to the Iran war. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia sets May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium.
Spot gold continues to find support at the 100-SMA as USD weakness lifts the precious metal just shy of USD 4,700/oz and holds above USD 4,600/oz, which has acted as a significant inflection point in recent trading sessions.
Copper futures return from the 3-day closure with mild gains, with CME Copper oscillating in a USD 5.59-5.69/t range, as the risk tone improves on hopes of a Middle East ceasefire. LME is still out of action until Tuesday.