[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude firmer on US-Iran, metals firmer on a softer USD

In geopolitics, US CENTCOM is set to brief President Trump on new military options for Iran, including potential strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the US blockade remains the core strategy, with Trump calling it “genius” and refusing to lift it without a nuclear deal. Elsewhere, Iran is threatening “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, while economic pressure is intensifying internally. The US is pushing to form a global maritime coalition to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
US CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper will brief Trump on Thursday on new Iran military plans, with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine also attending, according to Axios. The briefing signals Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations to break the negotiation deadlock or deliver a final blow before ending the war. Primary plan: a “short and powerful” wave of strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure to force Tehran back to negotiations with concessions on the nuclear issue. Second option: US takeover of parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen commercial shipping, potentially involving ground forces. Third option: special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Trump currently views the naval blockade as more effective than bombing and as his main leverage tool but remains open to military action if Iran does not concede. US planners are also preparing for potential Iranian retaliation against US forces in the region. CENTCOM Commander Cooper gave Trump a similar briefing on Feb. 26, two days before the US and Israel attacked Iran.
WTI June and Brent July futures are firmer as de-escalation efforts between US and Iran seem futile, with neither side publicly willing to move on demand. WTI resides in a USD 106.45-110.93/bbl range and Brent in a USD 110.19-114.70/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF holds a mild upward bias and found some resistance at EUR 49/MWh before waning to near EUR 47/MWh.
Spot gold and silver are firmer as the DXY falls on recent JPY strength following the “final warning” from Japan’s Top currency diplomat with regards to JPY intervention, with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama earlier sparking JPY strength as she said the timing to take decisive action is near – which comes ahead of the Japanese market holidays between May 3rd-6th. Spot gold has topped yesterday’s high to trade in a current USD 4,539-4,629/oz.
Base metals are also benefiting from the softer USD coupled with above-forecast Chinese RatingDog and NBS Manufacturing PMIs. 3M LME copper resides in a 12,977.97- 13,120.35/t range at the time of writing.