[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures on a firmer footing as geopolitical tensions show no tangible signs of abating
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures on a firmer footing as geopolitical tensions show no tangible signs of abating
[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equities under pressure as the Iran war persists, Tech falters following Google update
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On the Newsquawk feed at , 20 minutes before this page.
- On the geopolitical front, US President Trump reportedly told aides that he wants a speedy end to the war and believes the conflict is in its final stages. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday, even without a final agreement, while N12 News separately said the working assumption in Israel is that he could announce a ceasefire as soon as this coming Saturday.
- More recently, it was reported US Pentagon is reportedly preparing for a massive "final blow" of the Iran war, via Axios. Options include: Invading or blockading Kharg Island; Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz; seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE; Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait.
- Crude futures gradually edged higher overnight and held onto that strength throughout the European morning, with Brent Jun'26 printing a USD 100.96/bbl peak (vs USD 97.69/bbl low) while WTI May'26 prints a current USD 94.13-90.71/bbl range.
- Spot gold is lower after a two-day recovery, with bullion back under USD 4,450/oz at the time of writing, giving back most of the prior session gains, amid the conflicting US and Iranian statements. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 4,412-4,544/oz range after finding support on Monday at its 200-DMA (4,091.57/oz)
- Base metals are also softer, with copper under pressure as investors weigh the inflationary implications of the conflict alongside the risk of weaker global activity and softer demand. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,114.00- 12,276.08/t range at the time of writing.
Context
The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Iran conflict, are influencing crude oil prices, which have seen a slight upward trend. With reported plans from the US military for a decisive action, the potential for escalated conflict remains high, keeping risk sentiment elevated and affecting commodities like gold and copper due to inflation concerns and demand fears. Overall, this geopolitical backdrop could sustain support for energy prices while adding pressure to safer assets like gold in the near term.
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