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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures reverse earlier gains amid some positive noise ahead of Iran deadline; spot gold and copper contained

Crude futures are reacting to heightened geopolitical tensions as the deadline for U.S.-Iran talks approaches, causing volatility in energy markets.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 7 more headlines followed before this page went public
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Fars reports that Iranian retaliatory attacks targeted two petrochemical complexes in Saudi Arabia linked to American companies, including Exxon (XOM)

Iran spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Shura Council says Iran will not allow any enemy ship to cross the Strait of Hormuz, Al Mayadeen reports

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures reverse earlier gains amid some positive noise ahead of Iran deadline; spot gold and copper contained

China will strengthen the security of industrial and supply chains in key sectors and seek to balance development and security while promoting high-level opening to the outside world, Xinhua reports

Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick suggests that, "to my understanding, the interlocutors (Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt) are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran"

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  • Crude futures gained at the start of the APAC session and held onto gains as European traders stepped in as US President Trump's 20:00EDT deadline approaches. If Iran does not agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he said the US will decimate Iran's bridges and didn't rule out striking power plants. However, Trump did also state that he thinks talks are going well and that Iran has "an active and willing participant on the other side." Further reporting throughout the European morning indicates that an agreement could be near, with Pakistani reporter Mallick suggesting that the interlocutors are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between the US and Iran.
  • WTI and Brent topped at USD 116.56/bbl and USD 111.80/bbl, respectively, before completing a reversal of earlier losses, despite a clear driver for the reversal. At the time of writing, WTI May'26 has returned below USD 113/bbl while Brent Jun'26 oscillates on either side of USD 110/bbl.
  • Spot gold trades relatively contained within a USD 4617-4691/oz range. Upticks have picked up pace in recent trade as the USD softens amid downside in energy prices. However, the 20-SMA at USD 4,732/oz and last week's high of USD 4,800/oz remain as near-term resistance levels. To add, China added gold to its reserves for a 17th consecutive month, highlighting that demand for the yellow metal is still high. However, UBS lowered its end-June forecast to USD 5,200/oz due to softer investor demand.
  • 3M LME copper is rangebound, oscillating in a USD 12.37k-12.46k/t range. This comes as participants remain cautious as the Trump deadline looms.
Context

Despite initial gains, prices for WTI and Brent have reversed, indicating uncertainty surrounding potential escalations or agreements. Meanwhile, gold remains supported by ongoing demand and a weakening USD, although UBS's revised forecast suggests caution ahead.

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