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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures undecided amid delegation confusion

Importance
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  • Crude futures are softer thus far but have clambered off worst levels over US-Iran uncertainty. More recently, reports out of Iran suggest that no delegation has been sent to Islamabad yet, which contradicts earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani source, that both the Iranian and US teams are present in Islamabad. Both WTI and Brent briefly topped above USD 87/bbl and USD 95/bbl, respectively, before falling back.
  • Other updates include the expectation that US VP Vance arrives in Islamabad on Tuesday for the talks, while President Trump stated that the US blockade will remain in place until a deal is reached.
  • Spot gold continues to trade within its ascending channel but has slipped back below the USD 4800/oz handle (current range: USD 4773-4833/oz). The modest upside seen in the dollar, thus far, is weighing on the yellow metal, with the 50-SMA at 4891 also providing a ceiling for the metal.
  • 3M LME Copper oscillates in a tight USD 13.2k-13.3k/t range amid the mixed risk appetite as markets look to potential US-Iran talks.