[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude gains and await the next chapter of the US-Iran saga and the OPEC+ meeting

• WTI Apr’26 and Brent May’26 futures are firmer within USD 64.85-65.90/bbl and USD 70.42-71.49/bbl intraday ranges thus far respectively. Gains follow yesterday’s US-Iran negotiations which ultimately failed to reach an accord, but the sides agreed to continue technical talks. Mediators reported "unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas". Both sides reportedly moved closer on specific elements of an agreement related to nuclear limits and sanctions relief. That being said, major sticking points remain, including the US demand that Iran completely stop uranium enrichment and transfer its existing 400kg stockpile out of the country. Iran maintains it has the right to peaceful enrichment under international oversight. US Secretary of State Rubio highlighted Iran's refusal to include its ballistic missile program in the talks as a "big problem". In terms of the next steps, expert-level negotiations are scheduled to begin this Monday, 2 March, in Vienna to work through technical details with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Nonetheless, markets are on the lookout for any potential US military action, with reports suggesting US President Trump is expected to convene senior advisers on Friday for detailed discussions on Iran and to decide on a course of action toward Tehran. Internal deliberations are said to be focused not on whether a strike would occur but on its scope and potential targets, while options under discussion include nuclear facilities, missile sites, state institutions and infrastructure, according to Israel Hayom citing US officials.
• Elsewhere for the oil complex, traders eye the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, the eight core OPEC+ members - Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman - are due to meet on 1 March to decide whether to begin unwinding their 2.2mln BPD of voluntary cuts from April or extend the current pause into Q2. Recent reporting by Bloomberg and Reuters suggests the group is leaning towards resuming gradual output increases, potentially around 137k BPD from April, marking a shift from earlier expectations of a continued freeze. Brent crude has recovered to around USD 71/bbl, supported by geopolitical risk premia and supply disruptions, including in Kazakhstan, giving the alliance greater scope to add barrels without significantly undermining prices. The stated rationale includes preparing for stronger summer demand and allowing members such as the UAE to utilise expanded capacity, while also managing market share against non-OPEC producers. However, the decision remains data- and market-contingent, with delegates indicating that a sudden deterioration in conditions could still prompt an extension of the pause.

The ongoing US-Iran negotiations and potential for US military action create significant geopolitical tension, affecting oil markets. Crude prices are supported by these uncertainties as traders prepare for upcoming OPEC+ decisions on production cuts. The balance between geopolitical risks and supply considerations will be critical in determining oil price movements in the near term.