[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude holds an upward bias as Iran targets US bases, with weekend risk elevated despite Trump’s comments
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude holds an upward bias as Iran targets US bases, with weekend risk elevated despite Trump’s comments
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- On the geopolitical front, US President Trump announced a 10-day pause in planned strikes on energy plants to Monday, 6th April 2026 at 8 PM, at the request of the Iranian government, while he added that talks with Iran are going very well. Trump said talks with Tehran were going very well and delayed possible strikes on Iran’s energy plants, although Iranian officials described the US proposals as unfair. The WSJ added that Iran had not requested the 10-day pause on strikes, according to mediators, and had yet to provide a ‘final response’ to the 15-point plan to end the war, despite Trump suggesting the extension came at Iran’s request. Elsewhere, the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to provide Trump with more military options, while Axios cited a senior US defence official who expects a decision on the deployment to come next week.
- This morning, explosions were reported at American bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC Telegram account posted that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with. The post added that three container ships of different nationalities started to move towards the specified corridor for the traffic of licensed ships, and then turned back following a warning from the IRGC Navy.
- Crude initially fell after Trump paused attacks on Iran’s energy sector and signalled ongoing talks, but prices later turned higher, with Brent briefly topping USD 104/bbl (USD 99.01-104.18/bbl range) and WTI near USD 97/bbl (USD 92.08-96.75/bbl range). Analysts at Macquarie have warned that oil prices could hit a record USD 200/bbl if the war lasts until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Dutch TTF prices trade flat intraday but remain at elevated levels north of EUR 55/MWh.
- Gold rose after Trump extended the Iran deadline, with bullion rebounding to around USD 4,450/oz after Thursday’s near 3% decline. The yellow metal came off its best levels as the USD strengthened amid the tilt to risk aversion in the early European morning.
- Copper is on track for its first weekly gain this month, supported by hopes that US efforts to end the Middle East war may avert a broader hit to global growth, though uncertainty over negotiations and potential troop deployments remains, whilst Iran continues attacks on US bases across the region. Further, China opened two probes against the US: 1) regarding trade practices, and 2) regarding green products. The probes are to conclude within six months but can be extended, MOFCOM said. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,138.00- 12,333.95/t range.
Context
The geopolitical situation is escalating with Iran targeting US bases and conflicting reports on diplomatic talks, which has led to a notable upward bias in crude prices. Despite Trump's reassurances of a pause in military action, the potential for troop deployments and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep the risk elevated, impacting energy markets and broader risk sentiment.
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