[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude is rangebound after recent choppy trade and mixed geopolitical headlines, as the fragile US-Iran truce holds

WTI/Brent: WTI Jun'26 +0.3% / Brent Jun'26 +0.4%

• Oil prices are rangebound following the prior day's indecisive performance, in which the crude benchmarks pared some of the ceasefire-related losses, albeit in a choppy fashion, as the fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding for now and US President Trump voiced optimism that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Conversely, there were reports late on Thursday of explosions in Tehran and several of Iran's Gulf neighbours, while the IDF continued to strike Lebanon with Israeli PM Netanyahu declaring no ceasefire in Lebanon and that they won't stop until Northern Israel is secure, despite reports of planned Israel-Lebanon talks next week. Furthermore, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a virtual standstill, with reports noting that just six ships travelled through the strait on Thursday, with two oil tankers among those six ships.

Gold: -0.1%

• Lacks direction and takes a breather after yesterday's advances towards the USD 4,800/oz level, where the precious metal then hit resistance before retracing some of the gains.

Copper: +0.4%

• Ekes mild gains amid the mostly positive risk environment overnight and following a return to growth in Chinese factory gate prices, which exited deflationary territory for the first time in over 3 years.