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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude nurses yesterday's losses as ceasefire hopes wane and as the IRGC announces a new Hormuz corridor

The waning optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire heightens geopolitical risks, particularly with escalating tensions in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude nurses yesterday's losses as ceasefire hopes wane and as the IRGC announces a new Hormuz corridor

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  • Optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire faded as both sides signalled breaches and diverging terms, with Trump warning of military escalation if compliance fails and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying multiple clauses of Tehran’s plan have already been violated. Lebanon has emerged as the key fault line—while the US and Israel insist it sits outside the agreement, Iran and its allies treat it as integral, raising the risk of collapse as Israeli strikes and Hezbollah activity continue. Meanwhile, planned talks in Islamabad highlight a lack of alignment, with uncertainty over whether negotiations will follow the US proposal or Iran’s competing framework, and both sides signalling different private vs public positions. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds further fragility, as Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks (Full Analysis available on the Newsquawk headline feed).
  • Crude rebounded after Wednesday’s biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with June Brent back near USD 97/bbl (after Wednesday’s 13% slump), as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon raised concerns over the durability of the Middle East truce. WTI May trades towards the top of a USD 96.25-98.38/bbl range and Brent June towards the upper end of a USD 96.30-97.97/bbl parameter. Mizuho expects crude to remain near USD 90/bbl through Q2 before returning to pre-conflict levels, while CBA sees upside risks while the Strait remains largely closed and physical undersupply linked to the Iran war supports prices.
  • Spot gold holds above USD 4,700 /oz after rising 1.5% over the prior two sessions, as traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution against sporadic fighting that threatened the ceasefire. However, some flagged a technical correction after the sharp rise in front-month Comex futures. The metal trades within a narrow USD 4,699-4,733/oz range at the time of writing, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,671.57/oz. Commerzbank said gold had been supported by lower oil prices, easing inflation risks and pulling down rate expectations and bond yields, though the outlook still depends on whether a lasting US-Iran settlement emerges.
  • Copper futures pulled back overnight and remain weak in the European session as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 12,587.00- 12,678.70/oz
Context

This could lead to increased volatility in crude oil prices as supply disruptions become more likely, while gold remains supported amid concerns over inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Traders should be mindful of how these dynamics could influence not only energy markets but also broader risk sentiment across commodities and currencies.

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