[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pressured by recovering Hormuz flows and despite renewed Saudi attacks
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pressured by recovering Hormuz flows and despite renewed Saudi attacks
UK sells GBP 1.25bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.62x (prev. 3.37x), real yield 1.860% (prev. 1.725%)
European Retail Sales (Aug YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 0.4%)
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- WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer following Monday’s choppy session, with the complex pressured by recovering Persian Gulf exports, Saudi OSP cuts and recent emergency stock releases. Kpler data showed average daily crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to 10.3mln BPD in the seven days to Saturday, around 76% of pre-war levels, while Trump reiterated that the US had secured the Strait and expects the Iran war to end soon. Geopolitical risks remain after reports of another Yemeni attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jeddah, while Saudi Arabia confirmed Jazan and Najran airports were struck on Monday. Iran also kept up the rhetoric, with officials warning that its forces are ready to respond to any US or Israeli “miscalculation”. At the same time, some diplomatic tones remain after Iran said talks in Doha addressed Qatari and Pakistani mediation proposals aimed at reducing regional tensions and averting further war. WTI has fallen from a USD 90.05/bbl high to USD 88.24/bbl, while Brent has declined from USD 100.99/bbl to USD 99.38/bbl.
- Dutch TTF is sharply firmer and has extended to a EUR 76.45/MWh high from EUR 74.03/MWh, with European energy security concerns remaining at the front of traders' minds. Equinor noted that European gas customers are showing greater willingness to sign long-term contracts extending into the 2040s, while European Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must address structural vulnerabilities to volatile foreign fossil-fuel markets. Sticking with supply side, drones hit two commercial ships in the Black Sea off Bulgaria, sinking one.
- Precious metals are mixed, with spot gold firmer as USD dips with oil. The yellow metal has rebounded from USD 4,104/oz to above USD 4,150/oz, within a USD 4,104-4,152/oz range, while spot silver is little changed within a USD 60.28-61.21/oz range.
- Base metals are modestly firmer, with copper extending recent gains amid the positive risk tone and expectations for stronger AI-related demand for data centres and power infrastructure. However, upside remains tempered by the continued absence of mainland China for the National Day holiday. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,393.08-14,485.00/t range at the time of writing.
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