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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices gain amidst a lack of US-Iran progress, but with focus on a three-stage plan

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Iran suspends exports of steel slabs and sheets until 30th May, Iranian media reports

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices gain amidst a lack of US-Iran progress, but with focus on a three-stage plan

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  • WTI and Brent are both firmer this morning by circa. 2.6%, as the complex digests several geopolitical updates, with the overarching theme overall a lack of progress between US-Iran.
  • To recap, US President Trump cancelled his envoy’s trip to Pakistan, suggesting that it would be a waste of time. He claimed that Iran sent a “much better” offer within 10 minutes of him cancelling the trip, but it was “not enough”. Since, Axios reported that Iran had communicated a three-stage negotiation process to the US through intermediaries. A first stage would involve securing guarantees to prevent another war, with the next stage to focus on the Strait and then finally on nuclear issues. Given that this proposal pushes the nuclear issue to the back of the agenda, it is not likely that the US will accept the proposal. The focus ahead will be on Trump, who is reportedly to hold a situation room meeting on Iran.
  • As for US sanctions, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US would not be extending the waiver, which allowed the purchase of Russian oil stranded at sea. Also clouding the mood is the US recently imposing sanctions on 40 shipping firms & vessels, including on one of China’s largest “teapot” refineries, Hengli. The US Treasury claimed that it is “one of Tehran’s most valued customers”, suggesting that it had funded Iran’s military; the Chinese petro name denied these allegations.
  • WTI and Brent climbed higher throughout the European morning; Brent Jun’26 sits at the upper end of a USD 106.19/bbl to USD 108.24/bbl range, with WTI Jun’26 also at highs within a USD 94.99/bbl to USD 96.87/bbl band. Both contracts jumped at the open as markets digested Trump’s cancellation of talks, but then slipped on the aforementioned Axios report. The proposal indicates some openness to negotiations, but given that the nuclear issue has been pushed to the back of the agenda, it is unlikely to be accepted by the US. A factor which likely explains the complete reversal of the initial downside following the report.
  • Spot gold is essentially flat this morning and currently trades within a USD 4,672-4,729/oz range. It currently oscillates around its 21 DMA (4,718/oz), with the high of the day a touch short of its 100 DMA (4,746/oz). Elsewhere, base metals hold a slight negative bias, but with slight strength in Aluminium prices, given the elongated disruption of supplies from the Middle East region. As for 3M LME Copper, it is currently a little lower within a USD 13,259-13,376.03/t range.

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