[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude rebounds following US “self-defence” strikes on Iran; precious metals slip

In terms of the main geopolitical updates, US forces carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and boats allegedly attempting to lay mines. CENTCOM said the strikes had concluded, “for now”. Iran’s IRGC said Tehran has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach, adding that it had identified hostile aircraft entering Iranian airspace over the Gulf and shot down an MQ-9 drone. Diplomatically, Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly yet to approve progress toward a potential US-Iran accord. Iran’s conditions include an end to fighting on all fronts, lifting the US blockade, allowing civilian shipping through Hormuz under Iranian arrangements, a 30-60 day suspension of oil sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian funds. Separately, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that the Israeli army has begun mobilising soldiers to intensify operations in Lebanon.
The crude complex rebounds following yesterday's hefty losses, with Brent futures firmer by 3%, whilst WTI/Brent intraday change quotes diverge given the lack of WTI settlement due to the US holiday yesterday. Brent Aug’26 resides towards the upper end of a USD 94.36-96.85/bbl range, with some upticks seen as the Iranian Supreme leader released a message suggesting America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East; "the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases". WTI Jul’26 sits in a USD 89.41-93.90/bbl band. Dutch TTF prices are firmer by some 4% intraday and back above the EUR 47/MWh mark after oscillating around EUR 46/MWh yesterday.
Spot gold falls with the yellow metal dipping under yesterday’s USD 4,548.91/oz low after matching the high at USD 4,580/oz, with today’s trough at USD 4,520/oz. Meanwhile, Malaysia has imposed a 10% import duty on some gold bar shipments. Spot silver is also weaker, with prices slipping from a USD 78.39/oz to a current low at USD 75.73/oz.
Base metals are mixed with the LME returning from its long weekend. LME and CME copper trade relatively flat, with price action rather varied across different base metals. LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,620.00- 13,728.00/t range.