[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude subdued but cautious amid fragile Israel/Lebanon ceasefire and heading into US-Iran ceasefire expiry

In geopolitics, a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect at 17:00EDT/22:00BST on Thursday, though Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected Hezbollah’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, saying forces would remain in a security zone extending to the Syrian border. A Hezbollah source said Lebanon retains the right to resist by all means while Israeli forces remain, while Iran welcomed the ceasefire but also called for a full withdrawal. This morning, reports made the rounds that Israeli forces targeted an ambulance team in southern Lebanon (which breaches the ceasefire), although reporting on this was light overall. On Iran, President Trump struck an optimistic tone on prospects for a permanent US-Iran ceasefire and said Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though some European and Gulf Arab leaders cautioned a deal could still take around six months; Trump nevertheless said an announcement could come soon. Meanwhile, a source told Al-Mayadeen that starting Friday at noon (10:00 BST), anyone wishing to cross Bab al-Mandab should be more vigilant than ever before in all six directions, while other reports said the warning was made by a resistance commander.
Crude price action has been choppy this morning, prices fell on hopes of reduced Middle East supply disruption, with Brent Jun'26 moving towards USD 98/bbl (USD 97.94-98.98/bbl range) and WTI Jun'26 sub-90/bbl (in a USD 89.37-90.34/bbl range), before recovering slightly on the Lebanon ambulance report. New lows were hit shortly after wires re-ran overnight reports of a Pakistani-flagged tanker exiting the Persian Gulf, whilst other reports suggested Indian refiners are paying for Iranian crude in CNY.
Spot gold trades within a narrow range, awaiting the next macro impulse. Ranges are narrow within USD 4,767.84-4,806.20/oz. Spot silver found some support near its 100 DMA (USD 77.95/oz) but remains contained to a USD 77.77-79.26/oz.
Base metals flat/mixed with copper futures contained within a narrow band amid a lack of macro headlines ahead of a weekend of risk. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,182.53-13,300.60/t range at the time of writing.