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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude surges as attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten long-term damage to major energy facilities

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  • WTI and Brent surge amid escalating Iranian war, with Iran targeting Gulf facilities across the region, with Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia coming under fire. More recently, it was reported that the Saudi port of Yanbu had stopped oil loadings, according to sources. Yanbu is Saudi Arabia's second-largest port city after Jeddah and serves as the kingdom's primary industrial and energy hub on the Red Sea. Yanbu was acting as Saudi Arabia’s strategic "safety valve" as of March 2026, Saudi Aramco had significantly increased oil exports through Yanbu to bypass the closure of the Strait caused by regional conflict. Crude benchmarks pulled back from best levels following source reports that Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port had resumed oil loadings. Brent almost hit a fresh war peak earlier (USD 119.50/bbl), with the contract currently in a USD 109.78-119.13/bbl range. WTI trades in a narrower USD 95.32-99.17/bbl range.
  • Meanwhile, regarding the Brent-WTI Arb - Analysts note how Brent and WTI prices have surged unevenly amid the Middle East conflict, with the US gauge trading at an almost USD 12/bbl discount to Brent on Wednesday, the widest level since early 2015. Elsewhere, US fuel makers increased purchases of Venezuelan heavy crude, with imports doubling in the week to 13th March, taking it to the highest since late 2024, government data showed. Oil shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador rose by more than 1mln BPD collectively over that window.
  • Gas prices surged this morning, with European gas benchmarks opening higher by some c. 30% QatarEnergy confirmed Ras Laffan Industrial City had been subjected to missile attacks. Dutch TTF soared to around EUR 72/MWh before waning to EUR 68/MWh during the morning (vs ~EUR 55/MWh on Wednesday).
  • Spot gold extends yesterday’s losses as higher energy prices keep the USD on a firmer footing and increased hawkishness across central banks, with all central banks thus far highlighting the upward inflation risks from continued elevated energy prices. Spot gold fell to a sub-USD 4,700/oz low, to a USD 4,686.82/oz trough at the time of writing.
  • Copper futures remain pressured after the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict and broad risk-off mood. Copper has wiped out all of its 2026 gains as the prospect of higher oil prices serves as a headwind for global growth and thus demand for the red metal. 3M LME copper trades in a current USD 12,041.58- 12,326.23/t range,

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