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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude takes a breather, precious metals benefit and aluminium once again outperforms

The latest developments in U.S.-Iran tensions are creating ripples across various markets, particularly in energy and metals.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 3 more headlines followed before this page went public
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude takes a breather, precious metals benefit and aluminium once again outperforms

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  • In geopolitics, the main updates have been US President Trump threatening to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon, although the WSJ also reported he told aides he is willing to end the US military operation in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. The IRGC said the Strait is fully under the control of its forces and warned that any hostile movement would be met with missiles and drones, adding that operations are continuing; it also confirmed it had targeted a ship in the Gulf. Add to that, eyes also remain on the Red Sea following the involvement of the Yemeni Houthis. Houthis are reportedly monitoring American movements at bases in the Horn of Africa that may signal an imminent American move in the Red Sea. Yemeni officers said that there are American movements in order to bring the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait into the campaign.
  • Elsewhere, the EU energy commissioner, in a letter to EU energy ministers, said EU countries should prepare for prolonged disruption to energy markets from the Iran war. The letter added that the immediate impact on EU energy security of supply remains contained, and that EU countries should delay any non-emergency refinery maintenance. Further, the letter stated that countries should avoid measures that would increase fuel consumption or curb EU refinery output.
  • Oil fluctuated after the WSJ report suggested Trump may be prepared to end the campaign without restoring full access through Hormuz. WTI, having settled above USD 100/bbl on Monday for the first time since 2022, eased to around USD 103/bbl after earlier gains linked to another Iranian tanker attack in the Persian Gulf, while Brent traded above USD 107/bbl. Price action this morning has been subdued and currently resides in a USD 100.83-106.86/bbl for WTI May, while Brent June sits towards the lower end of 104.72-109.99/bbl.
  • Spot gold rose after comments from Fed Chair Powell and Williams indicated policy remains in a good place, helping to temper rate-hike expectations; the bullion climbed before paring gains to trade near USD 4,555/oz, with the yellow metal currently holding in a USD 4,482.66-4,619.25/oz range at the time of writing. Goldman Sachs said gold could reach USD 5,400/oz by year-end, citing low speculative positioning, expectations for two Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank demand, with official-sector buying seen at around 60 tonnes per month.
  • Copper futures marginally benefitted from hopes of an earlier end to the Middle East conflict and after Chinese PMI data topped forecast, but then pared gains given the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East conflict. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 12,122.00- 12,286.95/t range. Aluminium once again outperforms on the LME amid supply woes from the Middle East after Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain were both targeted by Iran.
Context

Trump's threats against Iran's energy infrastructure and the EU's preparation for energy market disruption could lead to volatility in crude oil prices, while the interplay of geopolitical risks is benefitting precious metals like gold. Overall, the situation suggests a complex environment where uncertainty could drive heightened demand for safe-haven assets.

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