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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude ticks higher amid UKMTO reports of attacks in Hormuz; softer USD lends underpins metals

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is escalating as reports of attacks on ships by Iran surface, contributing to a firmer outlook for crude oil prices.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude ticks higher amid UKMTO reports of attacks in Hormuz; softer USD lends underpins metals

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  • In geopolitics, US President Trump said the US had been asked to hold its attack on Iran until Iranian leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal, and extended the ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded, one way or the other, while instructing the military to continue the blockade. Axios reported that Trump is willing to give Iran another three to five days of ceasefire, with one source saying it looks like Trump does not want to use military force anymore and has made a decision to end the war, while also stressing the ceasefire is not going to be open-ended. US-Iran talks remained in limbo, with VP Vance’s trip to Pakistan called off / postponed, Iran deciding not to attend Islamabad on Wednesday, and mediators still trying to get both sides back to the table. Iranian officials said the continuation of the naval blockade means continuation of hostilities, while warning that Tehran may not recognise or abide by the ceasefire under such conditions. In Hormuz, two separate reports were released by the UKMTO as Iran targets ships in the region.
  • WTI and Brent futures are firmer as geopolitics remain the driving force, with uncertainty continuing to weigh on the supply side of the equation alongside reports of attacks on ships in the region. WTI resides towards the top end of a USD 87.64-90.71/bbl range, while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 96.54-99.49/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF also trades modestly firmer north of EUR 42/MWh but well off war-peaks.
  • Precious metals are firmer as the DXY takes a breather from yesterday’s rise. Spot gold yesterday dipped under its 100 DMA (USD 4,730/oz) to a USD 4,668.62/oz low before trimming losses and rising back above the 100 DMA and to levels around USD 4,750/oz (USD 4,715-4,772/oz). Spot silver this morning found resistance at its 100 DMA (USD 78.68/oz), with the metal currently in a USD 76.70-78.68/oz band at the time of writing.
  • Base metals are mostly firmer across the board to varying degrees, with a softer dollar underpinning price action for now, alongside some relief following Trump's ceasefire extension, despite the breakdown of talks. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,213.33-13,335.00/t range at the time of writing.
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Additionally, a softer USD is boosting metals, as the weaker dollar makes commodities priced in USD more attractive. Traders should stay alert to potential volatility as negotiations between the US and Iran remain sensitive and could impact both energy and metal markets significantly.

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