[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar retreats amid broad risk-on move following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement

The dollar's retreat reflects a significant pivot in market sentiment due to the announced ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has heightened risk appetite across the board.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar retreats amid broad risk-on move following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement

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DXY: -0.5%

  • Dollar was pressured amid the broad heightened risk appetite following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, with the US and Iran agreeing to halt strikes and are set to conduct talks on Friday, while Israel and Lebanon were also reported to be included in the ceasefire, but Israeli PM Netanyahu later denied that Lebanon was included. Furthermore, there were reports of Iranian launches since the agreement, although US officials said they believe it may take some time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.

EUR/USD: +0.6%

  • Rallied as the buck weakened and a slump in oil prices eased energy-related concerns, while there were previous comments from ECB’s Wunsch that he is open to an interest rate rise at the April meeting.

GBP/USD: +0.8%

  • Retests the 1.3400 level to the upside amid the weaker dollar and upside in cyclical currencies.

USD/JPY: -0.7%

  • Slipped to beneath the 159.00 level amid broad selling in the dollar and as Japan's currency benefits from the drop in oil prices, while Japanese wage data also topped forecasts.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD +1.1% / NZD/USD +1.2%

  • Outperformed amid the heigthened risk appetite and with upside also seen in NZD/USD following the RBNZ rate decision where it kept rates unchanged, as expected, but also provided some hawkish-leaning rhetoric, stating that inflation is expected to increase in the near-term and the Committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns at a 2% target midpoint over the medium-term, while it added that if certain conditions are not met, decisive and timely increases in the OCR would be required.
Context

This geopolitical de-escalation is likely influencing currency movements, with investors shifting towards riskier assets and away from the dollar, leading to notable rallies in the euro, pound, and antipodean currencies. Furthermore, the intertwined implications for energy prices and central bank rhetoric also play a crucial role in shaping currency valuations at this moment.

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