[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY back above 100 & 200 DMAs as BoJ Governor Ueda fails to spur JPY; NOK outperforms, SEK tumbles

  • FX shows a risk-off bias with all G10 currencies lower against the Buck. 
  • DXY is back above its 100 & 200 DMAs around 98.50, after falling below those levels on Monday. The buck saw weakness after the BoJ announcement, where the vote split was more hawkish than expected at 6-3. However, following the meeting, the USD moved higher in tandem with crude benchmarks after news that Iran’s Foreign Minister was not returning to Pakistan following his visit to Russia.
  • In addition to this, Ueda at the BoJ presser failed to support bets for a June hike, with the initial move seen on the 6-3 vote split paring to bring USD/JPY to above 159.50, to pre-announcement levels (ventured as low as 158.96). MUFG said the BoJ meeting was unlikely to trigger a sustained reversal of the bearish JPY trend that has been in place since the Middle East conflict started in late February
  • Elsewhere, NOK fares the best against the USD amid firmer oil prices. NOK/SEK, +0.4%, continues to edge towards the 1.00 mark not seen since November 2024, with a session high of 99.63.
  • GBP is one of the worst performers in the G10FX space, with UK Political developments in the spotlight ahead of a debate & vote on whether PM Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee (Full analysis on the headline feed at 09:05 BST) GBP/USD traders lower by 0.3% and breached the 1.35 mark, while EUR/GBP has been creeping higher throughout the session but remains flat on the day.
Context

The DXY's rise above the 100 and 200 DMAs highlights a strengthening USD amidst a broader risk-off sentiment among G10 currencies. The BoJ's failure to support JPY against a backdrop of a hawkish vote split implies that the bearish trend for JPY may persist, while NOK benefits from firmer oil prices, contrasting with the struggling GBP amid domestic political concerns. This environment suggests potential for continued USD appreciation in the short term, influencing other currency pairs significantly.

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