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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY cautiously firms into CPI, EUR and HUF look to Hungarian election

The DXY is showing cautious strength ahead of the upcoming CPI data, reflecting market positioning as participants brace for the release.

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Lebanon intends to take part in a meeting next week in Washington to discuss and announce a ceasefire, according to a senior Lebanese official speaking to Reuters

Ukrainian President Zelensky's top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, Bloomberg reports; interview conducted on April 4th.

[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY cautiously firms into CPI, EUR and HUF look to Hungarian election

[CALENDAR ADDITION] Tasnim reports that SecGen of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Sheikh Naim Qassem, will issue a statement today at 13:00BST/08:00EDT about the latest developments in Lebanon and the region

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks tread water heading into US CPI and US-Iran peace talks

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  • Energy prices continue to dominate price action across G10 currencies, with USD leading, DXY higher by 0.2% and nearing a 99.00 handle. Focus remains on geopolitical updates, none of which overnight did much to spur crude benchmarks ahead of US/Iran talks scheduled this weekend. This morning, newsflow has been light, though there were reports that Iran said no talks would happen until attacks [on Lebanon] stop.
  • US CPI is due at 13:30 London time; today's release should not be a game-changer for the Fed unless the print significantly exceeds expectations, policy will likely be dictated after members assess the second round effects of the Middle East conflict in future months' prints.
  • EUR will look to Sunday's Hungarian election (Full Preview), where polling suggests opposition support Tisza will take power, though still unclear whether the opposition will gain a supermajority or a simple majority. Desks suggest a supermajority sees HUF and EUR strength, while a simple majority may see initial HUF gains and potential EUR strength, "likely to be pared". EUR/USD marginally surpassed the 1.17 level with a session high at 1.1702. Elsewhere for the single currency, German inflation was left unrevised at 1.1% on a monthly basis.
  • For NOK, Norwegian core inflation this morning surprised to the downside, but still remains elevated on a 3% handle, in line with the Norges Bank's forecast. With markets shrugging off the modest gains in crude this European morning, the net energy exporter's currency is flat/modestly lower against EUR within a 11.0839-11.1194 range.
  • Kiwi is the worst-performing G10 currency against a stronger buck, after the rally in the pair stalled just above 0.5870. Likely an element of profit-taking after gains over the past two days, with markets continuing to price 75bps of hikes by year end, unchanged from Thursday's close. Additionally, key metals trade 1-2% lower - as such, AUD also underperforming against the greenback.
Context

While the CPI figures could influence Fed policy, a significant deviation from expectations seems necessary for a notable shift in market sentiment. Concurrently, the EUR is affected by the upcoming Hungarian elections, with potential outcomes influencing both the HUF and EUR dynamics; a supermajority could bolster both currencies, while a simple majority may lead to a temporary boost for the HUF but potential losses for the EUR thereafter.

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