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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY firms as energy rebounds, Kiwi underperforms into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35, EUR quiet

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PREVIEW: RBNZ Announcement due Wednesday, 27th May at 03:00BST/22:00EDT

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY firms as energy rebounds, Kiwi underperforms into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35, EUR quiet

Sudzucker (SZU GY) to sell EUR-denominated 5yr notes

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  • G10s are broadly lower against the Buck as thin risk-on holiday trade on Monday was partially pared as US CENTCOM conducted "self-defence" strikes in Iran and Iran issued unconstructive rhetoric regarding the strikes.
  • DXY trades modestly higher, returning to Monday’s session highs amid the aforementioned geopolitics and a general rebound in crude benchmarks. Dollar saw upside this morning on rare remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, suggesting “America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East…. the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases". USD strength seen on these remarks was pared just above Monday session highs of 99.12. Aside from geopolitics, US domestic news is light; slated in today’s session are CB Consumer Confidence and Dallas Fed Manufacturing - the remainder of the week sees ADP jobs, Final GDP read, PCE and a few Fed speakers. DXY should remain supported by its 50DMA at 98.93, as it was on Monday, with resistance at 99.50, near half a per cent away.
  • Kiwi is the worst G10 performer into the RBNZ meeting and OCR projections on Wednesday, with Antipodeans generally underperforming amidst the modestly sour tone. AUD/NZD +0.3%, NZD/USD -0.4%. RBNZ expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting as geopolitical uncertainty and mixed data support the case for a pause. Markets currently assign  c. 70% probability of a hold, with risks skewed to tightening. In the meeting, MUFG writes “A signal of between two and three rate hikes this year from the RBNZ seems plausible”, broadly in line with market pricing.
  • GBP is one of the worst-performing G10s as energy is boosted on geopolitics, and Cable reverses from the 1.35 mark after gains on bank holiday Monday. EUR is one of the best-performing G10s as it resides a touch below 1.1650 after soft EZ, and hawkish US data pushed EUR/USD lower last week. The European docket for the remainder of the week sees EZ inflation and GDP data scheduled. ING this morning wrote, “Expect ongoing interest to play the downside in cross rates like EUR/AUD, where Aussie has high carry.”

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