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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY flat, USD/JPY edges higher despite hotter CPI and PPI prints

Today's stronger CPI and PPI data from the U.S.

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  • DXY is flat, failing to find a clear directional bias after finding resistance at the 50-SMA and topping just shy of the 20-SMA in Thursday’s session.
  • EUR/USD holds above 1.1680, ahead of the German IFO survey, in which business climate is expected at 84.8 (prev. 86.4). To recap Thursday’s flash PMIs, the services sector was hit the hardest, falling deeper into contractionary, while highlighting price pressures for the EZ not seen since the pandemic.
  • GBP/USD trades in a tight 1.3454-1.3473 range, with Retail Sales expected as European traders begin to sit at their desks. Markets are expecting a better reading compared to the February print, but still remaining subdued. Commonly used as a proxy, Barclaysʼ Consumer Spend report for March showed steady card spending with strong essential activity offsetting slower discretionary growth.
  • USD/JPY steadily grinds higher, with the JPY underperforming its G10 peers despite hotter CPI and PPI prints that should, in theory, support the Yen. The latest data is most likely not going to affect policymakers at the BoJ, in which a 97% probability of a hold is priced in. Currently, USD/JPY trades just shy of 159.80.
  • Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi outperforming after being the laggard in the prior session.
Context

haven’t spurred a notable reaction in the DXY or JPY, indicating that the market is perhaps dismissing these figures as noise rather than a trend shift. The lack of movement suggests that investor focus remains on central bank policies, especially as the Bank of Japan appears set to maintain its course despite the inflation prints. This dynamic could influence upcoming market sentiment and positioning ahead of further data releases.

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