[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY gets some reprieve after suffering yesterday as the US-Iran ceasefire dominated price action, while FOMC Minutes validated the hawkish hold at the March meeting

DXY: +0.1%

  • Dollar gets some reprieve after suffering yesterday as the US-Iran ceasefire dominated trading, although details of the agreement appeared inconsistent between the two sides, with Lebanon a key contention point, while Iran said US and Israel had already broken the ceasefire after Lebanon was hit. Attention for the US was also on the FOMC minutes which validated the hawkish hold at the March meeting as the key message from was that officials were not yet ready to react mechanically to the oil shock from the US-Iran war, as most judged it too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the economy and policy, while the vast majority said progress back to 2% could now be slower and the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target had increased.

EUR/USD: Flat

  • Trades little changed after returning from a brief foray into 1.1700 territory, with the single currency contained overnight in the absence of fresh catalysts from the bloc.

GBP/USD: Flat

  • Struggled for direction with price action stuck near the 1.3400 focal point amid a quiet calendar and with little reaction seen to the deterioration in UK RICS House Price Balance, which fell to its lowest in more than 2 years.

USD/JPY: +0.2%

  • Eked mild gains and approached just shy of the 159.00 handle as the dollar regained composure and oil nursed some losses.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.1% / NZD/USD +0.2%

  • Price action is rangebound with mild outperformance in NZD/USD as RBNZ Governor Breman kept up the hawkish tone from the meeting as she stated that inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term and that they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
Context

The DXY's modest recovery comes as FOMC minutes reinforce a hawkish stance following the March meeting, indicating that while the Fed acknowledges the inflation risks stemming from geopolitical developments, they are not poised to respond hastily. This suggests that the dollar may stabilize amid uncertainties, but underlying inflationary concerns could support further rate hikes, reaffirming the Fed's cautious approach to economic conditions impacted by international events.

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