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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is a little lower heading into Fed speak, G10s mixed

The DXY is slightly lower as geopolitical developments exert pressure on the USD, particularly with reports of Indian refiners paying for Iranian crude in CNY.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is a little lower heading into Fed speak, G10s mixed

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  • DXY is a touch lower on the day with crude benchmarks trading lower by around -3% as news emerged that a Pakistani-flagged tanker became the first crude carrier to surpass the US Blockade since Monday. Elsewhere on geopolitics, reports suggested Indian refiners are paying for Iranian crude in CNY, reporting which may have added to pressure in the USD. (Comprehensive geopolitical analysis on the headline feed) 
  • MUFG, in its morning note, said "USD will remain vulnerable given the optimistic geopolitical backdrop and unless we see a notable jump in crude oil prices from here and/or larger declines in global equities then scope for further dollar depreciation remains."
  • DXY trades a touch above the 98.00 level, which it has tested in recent days, while USD/JPY reversed from a high of 159.53 to move towards the 159.00 mark. On the latter, BoJ Governor Ueda was on the wires overnight, he reiterated that monetary conditions remain highly accommodative.
  • Session ahead sees remarks from Fed’s Daly (2027 voter, dove; no text expected), Barkin (2027 voter, neutral; no text expected), Waller (voter, dove; text expected). Note, The Fed will enter its blackout window on 18th April ahead of its 29th April confab.
  • Elsewhere, AUD mildly leads given its high-beta characteristics with gold also firmer, and the aforementioned reports that CNY was used to pay for Iranian crude. AUD/USD lifted from a 0.7154 base to mark a session high of 0.7182
Context

This situation, combined with a more optimistic geopolitical backdrop, suggests potential vulnerability for the dollar unless commodity prices or equity markets shift. As we head into Fed comments today, traders will be looking for cues that may influence rate expectations and further dollar movement.

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