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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY trundles below technical support, Antipodeans outperform, and GBP unfazed by potential PM refferal

The DXY is trading lower, suggesting a generally weaker dollar that is benefitting high-beta currencies like the antipodeans, which are outperforming as risk sentiment improves.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY trundles below technical support, Antipodeans outperform, and GBP unfazed by potential PM refferal

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  • FX shows a risk-on picture not seen across other asset classes, in a move seemingly driven by a weaker greenback, with antipodeans and generally high-beta FX outperforming.
  • DXY is lower by 0.2%, well off highs of 99.34 made at the Asia re-open and below both 100 and 200 DMAs, which offered support last week. This comes as Axios reported that Iran gave the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, news which has helped the risk complex. The plan calls for an extension of the ceasefire so parties can work on a three-stage plan, with nuclear negotiations the final stage. The report noted that Pakistani mediators had given the proposal to the US, though it was unclear if the US would cooperate.
  • The US-specific docket is light ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with just 2 and 5yr supply, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing scheduled.
  • Away from geopolitics, and perhaps another story which has offered the USD: Senator Tillis said he was dropping his decision to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair following the DoJ's decision to drop the criminal case against Fed Chair Powell. The vote on Warsh's confirmation is scheduled for 29th April.
  • Antipodeans outperform, the cross is choppy and around the unchanged mark as both currencies benefit against the weaker Buck following that Axios report. NZD/USD, AUD/USD +0.6%/+0.5%. CAD also does well, helped by the risk environment alongside Crude benchmarks, which are firmer on the session.
  • EUR/GBP is a touch firmer after it bounced off a 0.8654 low to try to recoup last week's modest losses following strong UK data. Both currencies look to expected holds from the ECB and BoE.
  • In the UK, political angst persists, with the Daily Mail reporting that former Deputy PM Rayner told Labour MPs the time to oust the PM was “now or never”. This morning, POLITICO reported that Commons Speaker Hoyle was expected to announce whether he would allow a Commons vote on whether to refer the PM to the Privileges Committee over claims he misled the House (announcement at 14:30 BST), MUFG writes this morning that Speaker Hoyle is likely to allow the vote, which is essentially a litmus of confidence for the PM. Though, as always, GBP will likely remain unbothered by domestic politics as all eyes are on the May local elections.
Context

This shift is likely driven by geopolitical developments regarding Iran and some stabilizing dynamics in domestic U.S. politics, potentially favoring risk-on trades. The market appears to be focusing on anticipated central bank policies and economic data, as traders await further cues from this week's FOMC meeting.

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