[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy continues to be underpinned as the Iranian war enters Day 17

WTI and Brent crude futures are once again advancing, with WTI north of USD 100/bbl (in a USD 96.74-102.44/bbl range) while Brent hovering on a USD 105/bbl handle at the time of writing (USD 102.04-106.50/bbl range). Participants reflect on the geopolitical headlines from over the weekend in which the US conducted strikes on military targets in Iran's Kharg Island, from where Iran exports up to 90% of its oil products, but left oil infrastructure intact (full Newsquawk Analysis on the feed).
Desks suggest that targeting Iranian oil infrastructure increases the risk that Iran targets regional energy facilities. On that note, further upticks were seen in early European hours amid reports that the UAE's Fujairah port was hit and the damage is being assessed, while oil loadings have been suspended. In terms of Gulf members, over the weekend, Saudi Crown Prince MBS urged Washington to continue strong military pressure on Iran and "to keep hitting the Iranians hard", NYT reported citing multiple officials. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he expected China to help unblock Hormuz before his Beijing trip and may delay that trip, according to reports. Meanwhile, EU foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss extending the Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz.
In terms of forecasts, Morgan Stanley lifted its Brent price forecasts as far out as H2-2027: Q2-2026 110.00 (prev. 80.00), Q3-2026 90.00 (prev. 70.00), Q4-2026 80.00 (prev. 65.00), H1-2027 70.00 (prev. 65.00), H2-2027 70.00 (prev. 65.00).
Aside from geopolitics, traders look ahead to decisions from major G10s central banks this week, although any move in energy will likely be short-lived as geopolitics will likely dictate the central bank tone this week. Nat Gas also trades on a firmer footing amid the broader boost to energy, with front-month Dutch TTF closer to EUR 52/MWh at the time of writing.
Spot gold is flat intraday in choppy trade within a USD 4,967.77-5,036.01/oz range at the time of writing, with the yellow metal largely moving in tandem with the USD as traders watch oil prices for a potential macro/policy impact, whilst major central banks are slated to meet this week, with policy announcements from the FOMC, BoJ, BoE, ECB, RBA, and SNB all due.
Copper futures are off Friday's lows, but with the recovery constrained by the mostly subdued/cautious risk appetite. Elsewhere, Aluminium Bahrain officially initiated a controlled, phased shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2, and 3 on 15 March 2026. This action represents 19% of its 1.62mln-tonne annual capacity, and is a strategic response to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.