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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy continues to dictate fixed income, with benchmarks at contract lows. No move to Spanish CPI lifting by a full point

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy continues to dictate fixed income, with benchmarks at contract lows. No move to Spanish CPI lifting by a full point

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  • A bearish session for fixed income as tensions remain high and rhetoric/reporting/activity around the Middle East ramps up into the weekend. As it stands, the main thing we are attentive to is any sign of a 'last strike' or ground incursion by the US.
  • Initially, benchmarks were only modestly lower as crude was only USD 0.30-40/bbl into the green. However, throughout the morning, on reports of attacks at US military bases, Hormuz remaining closed, and continued reporting around a possible ground incursion, energy has lifted to the detriment of fixed income.
  • USTs at a 109-27+ base, lower by c. 10 ticks, notching a fresh WTD and contract low. Similarly, Bunds are at a 124.28 base with downside of 70 ticks at most, also marking a WTD and contract low. Finally, Gilts are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes larger, as has been the case in recent days. As above, the benchmark is at a WTD and contract low of 85.91, with losses of over a full point at most.
  • Elsewhere, no move to it but a headline worth being aware of relates to France, as the nation's deficit was 5.1% of GDP in 2025, beneath the government's goal of 5.4%. No relief from this, with OATs also lower by nearly a full point, and the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread widening modestly.
  • Finally, Spanish preliminary CPI wasn't as hot as expected this morning for March, though the figure did come in markedly above the prior rate, with the headline a full point higher vs the prior; no move to the data. Within the series, INE wrote that the evolution of prices was "mainly due to the rise in prices of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles."; i.e. signs that the Middle East situation is filtering through. Ahead, participants, as is the ECB, are particularly attentive to any signs of second-round inflationary effects.

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