[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy futures rise as US-Iran tensions escalated over the weekend

In geopolitics, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, stating it will remain under strict control and will not reopen while the US blockade of its ports continues, with multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels following the move. Tensions escalated after US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA as it attempted to breach the blockade, while President Trump said a separate Iranian vessel was intercepted and disabled after ignoring warnings. Iran condemned the seizure as piracy and warned it would retaliate, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Trump also renewed threats of major strikes on Iranian infrastructure if no deal is reached and signalled he may not extend the ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainty persists around US-Iran talks, with Washington planning fresh negotiations in Pakistan, although Tehran has not confirmed participation and significant gaps remain, particularly over nuclear terms and control of the Strait. More recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said no decision has been made regarding participation in the new round of negotiations.
Oil jumped as a result, with Brent climbing back above USD 95/bbl, reversing most of Friday’s decline (currently in a USD 94.33–97.50/bbl range) after the waterway’s brief reopening. WTI June trades in a USD 86.46–89.60/bbl range. Upside has been facilitated by the aforementioned escalation, with additional support following comments from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson indicating no decision has yet been made on talks with the US. That said, gains are somewhat capped by ongoing efforts to bring the US and Iran back to the table ahead of the ceasefire expiry on Wednesday (UK time). European natural gas prices also rose, with Dutch TTF futures briefly moving back above EUR 43/MWh after Iran shut the Strait again.
Spot gold and silver declined as the renewed disruption in Hormuz stoked inflation concerns tied to an energy supply shock and cast further doubt over efforts to end the conflict, with bullion slipping below USD 4,800/oz but currently off worst levels. Spot gold is trading in a USD 4,736–4,814/oz range.
Copper retreated from its highest close since early February. Iron ore bucked the broader trend and rose overnight, with reports noting firm Chinese demand ahead of the May Day holidays and tight near-term supply. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 13,204.90–13,375.28/t range at the time of writing.