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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy surges and metals slide as Trump dampens hopes of a near-term de-escalation

Trump's recent statements have increased tensions surrounding U.S.-Iran relations, indicating a shift towards military escalation.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy surges and metals slide as Trump dampens hopes of a near-term de-escalation

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  • In geopolitics, President Trump’s address largely repeated recent messaging on the Middle East, offering little fresh clarity on a path to de-escalation. That being said, Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window. On March 31st, Trump claimed the US could "leave" Iran within "two or three weeks" because the mission to prevent a nuclear weapon had been "attained." He framed the upcoming period as "finishing the job," asserting that the US would exit regardless of whether a formal deal was reached. On April 1st, in his televised address, he paired the same timeframe with a promise of violence, stating the US would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the "Stone Ages".
  • Trump gave no clear details on an exit strategy, the fate of the White House’s 15-point peace plan, the role of arriving US troops, or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying only that the “Strait will open up naturally”. Trump signalled the possibility of further US military strikes, reviving concerns over Middle East supply disruption.
  • Heading into the weekend (amid the holiday-shortened week), the OPEC+ JMMC and “Voluntary Eight” are set to meet on April 5th under extreme conditions following the escalation in the Middle East conflict. The group must decide whether to proceed with a planned 206k BPD output increase or maintain/extend cuts to stabilise markets amid heightened volatility. Focus will also be on any shift towards coordinated emergency measures or signalling around spare capacity utilisation, while headline risk remains elevated into the Iranian deadline on April 6th. As a reminder, US President Trump’s April 6th deadline (20:00 ET/ 01:00 BST on Tuesday April 7th) for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains active, with failure to comply risking US strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy infrastructure.
  • WTI and Brent futures have surged after US President Trump’s televised address, which dampened hopes of a near-term end to the conflict. Brent Jun’26 currently eyes USD 108.50/bbl to the upside (USD 99.08-108.62/bbl range) while WTI May’26 sits around USD 107/bbl (USD 97.50-107.05/bbl range). Meanwhile, European diesel futures hit USD 200/bbl as the Iranian war curbs supply. Dutch TTF is +3.5% at the time of writing, but off its best levels, with some citing forecasts of milder weather as a drag on prices despite the ongoing geopolitics. Analysts at ING suggest that “even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre‑war market conditions is likely to be slow, as upstream production restarts, logistics normalisation and inventory rebuilding will take time.”
  • Spot gold reversed an earlier gain after Trump’s speech offered little clarity on how the war might end. The bullion entered the European day around USD 4,600/oz after trading above USD 4,800/oz earlier in the APAC session. Spot silver briefly dipped under USD 70/oz before recovering to around USD 71.50/oz, but well off its earlier high of USD 76.42/oz.
  • Industrial metals also fell after Trump repeated that the US could strike Iran “extremely hard” and target its power plants if talks fail. 3M LME copper fell under USD 12,500/t but found support at USD 12,250/t. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported Trump is expected to overhaul US steel and aluminium tariffs, with finished goods made from imported metals potentially facing a 25% duty, while the administration is also preparing tariffs on drugmakers, possibly from Thursday, that have not agreed to guarantee low US prices.
Context

This has resulted in a surge in energy prices due to concerns over supply disruptions, while precious and industrial metals have seen selling pressure as uncertainty lingers over geopolitical stability. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting adds another layer of complexity, as decisions made here in light of these tensions could significantly impact market dynamics ahead.

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