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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Firmer trade across oil as markets digest conflicting reports while attacks continue

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India's Reliance (RIL IS) has reportedly purchased 5mln bbls of Iranian oil following the US sanctions waiver

The Netherlands sells EUR 1.63bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 3.50% 2056 DSL via tap: average yield 3.51% (prev. 3.469%)

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Firmer trade across oil as markets digest conflicting reports while attacks continue

[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY finds its footing following recent losses, Antipodeans lag, EUR digests PMIs which indicate slowing growth

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Two-way action for fixed but benchmarks are in relatively proximity to unchanged ahead of supply

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  • WTI and Brent futures are trimming some of the prior day's heavy losses that were triggered by US President Trump's announcement to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure after the US and Iran had 'very good and productive conversations'. Nonetheless as it stands, Iran denied talks with the US and called it fake news, but said messages had been conveyed in recent days through several friendly countries, while the partial rebound in oil was also spurred by a report that some gas-related facilities were hit amid US-Israeli strikes on Isfahan. Price action this morning has been rather rangebound, although some downside was seen following reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is said to have secretly informed US Envoy Witkoff of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s agreement to negotiate, Al Arabiya reported citing Israeli press Yedioth Ahronoth citing sources, although this remains unconfirmed. Prices clambered off those lows as Israeli official suggests that it is unlikely that Iran will agree to US demands. Energy markets will continue to be dictated by reports doing the rounds, whether conflicting or not. WTI resides in a current USD 88.50-92.29/bbl range, and Brent in a USD 101.93-101.93/bbl parameter.
  • Meanwhile, the Flash PMIs from Europe offered the first signs of the stagflationary effects of the war: The EZ release suggested the "eurozone GDP  growth slowing to a quarterly rate of just below 0.1% in  March with the forward-looking indicators pointing to  a heightened risk of a downturn the coming months." On the inflation front, "The survey’s price gauge is meanwhile indicative of consumer price inflation accelerating close to 3%, with cost pressure likely to add still further to selling price inflation in the coming months.
  • Analysts at ANZ expect oil to stay above USD 100/bbl in the near term due to a war premium and supply losses, and is seen averaging above USD 90/bbl this year; ANZ does not expect prices to return to the previous USD 60-70/bbl range even if the conflict ends in March. Macquarie forecasts Brent hitting a floor of USD 85-90/bbl if the Iranian tensions decrease; says USD 150/bbl is still an option if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut until April.
  • Spot gold is subdued amid a firmer USD as traders continue to weigh conflicting reports, with the yellow metal at the whim of the USD and oil prices, trading off lows in a current USD 4,305.94-4,448.33/oz range, but well within yesterday’s USD 4,099-4,536/oz range.
  • Base metals are mixed with a softer bias. 3M LME copper futures hover on either side of USD 12k/t as concerns over the Iran war’s impact on global growth and inflation weighed on sentiment, with PMIs also pointing to stagflation. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 11,908.00-12,111.98/t range at the time of writing.

Context

The oil market is experiencing volatility amidst conflicting reports surrounding U.S.-Iran relations, which have been influenced by both diplomatic developments and military actions. The potential for ongoing tensions, alongside reports of economic stagnation in Europe, suggests that energy prices could experience upward pressure due to a war premium, potentially keeping oil above $100/bbl in the near term. Traders should remain alert to how this geopolitical uncertainty could impact risk sentiment across commodities and broader markets.

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