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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed forges ahead as energy retreats after Trump suspended Project Freedom

The pause of Project Freedom by President Trump has led to a bullish sentiment in fixed income markets, with yields declining in response to the retreat in energy prices.

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UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 50.5)

UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.3)

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed forges ahead as energy retreats after Trump suspended Project Freedom

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Sentiment across European/US equity futures boosted amidst US-Iran optimism

Pakistan's PM thanks the US President for pausing Project Freedom, in response to a request from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, among others

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  • Unsurprisingly, a bullish start for fixed income as the marked energy retreat has allowed yields to ease.
  • See Commodities for more details but, in brief, US President Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations to occur. Since, we saw a post from Pakistani journalist Mallick suggesting he would not be shocked to hear of an Iranian proposal to the US via Islamabad, "soon".
  • USTs to a 110-22+ peak, with gains of 11+ ticks and holding just shy of Monday's WTD 110-26+ best. For the US, aside from geopols, we are attentive to ADP ahead of NFP on Friday; ADP is seen at 79k from 62k, vs a 73k (prev. 178k) consensus for Friday's Payrolls. Additionally, we get the full Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement after Monday's projections, before remarks from Fed's Musalem (2028) and Goolsbee (2027).
  • Bunds post gains in excess of 50 ticks and currently hold just off a 125.54 peak. A high that printed in proximity to the above geopolitical updates this morning, and after a slew of Final PMIs, which were subject to modest revision. Of note for policymakers, the ECB's latest wage tracker showed upside across the year. Though, the ECB will at this stage likely welcome the relatively modest level of upside and particularly that the Q4-2026 figure remains shy of the 2.709% reported in February.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 48 ticks before climbing another 30 ticks to an 86.89 peak, notching a new high for the week, but remain shy of last week's 87.03 closing price. Potentially capping a return to and test of that level is the ongoing scrutiny around PM Starmer, as UK press continues to brief that the challenge against Starmer is increasing, with the Welsh Labour leader seemingly primed to call for Starmer to step down on Friday and reports that the party is working to get Burnham back in the Commons.
Context

This easing environment is heightened by geopolitical concerns and may signal shifting investor preferences ahead of key employment data and Treasury announcements. Traders should note the rising demand reflected in USTs and Bunds, which could indicate a durable appetite for safer assets amid unfolding geopolitical dynamics.

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