[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income benchmarks flat/firmer as energy prices rebound off session lows

Newsquawk Staff · 6 Jul 2026, 02:18 UTC

UST Futures trade on a firmer footing and at the top end of its 109-17 to 109-22 range as US traders get ready to re-enter the market from its extended holiday. US S&P Services and Composite PMI are expected to be unrevised; however, more focus will be on the ISM Services PMI, headline expected at 54.2 from the prior 54.5. Using the Manufacturing figure as a possible benchmark, the headline figure missed estimates while prices came down by 9 points. However, market reaction was fairly unreactive.
Bund Futures rebound after Friday’s low volume selloff, driving higher right at the open and currently lies just shy of its session peak of 126.76. The earlier upside was seemingly helped by the lower energy prices and has held onto gains despite the reversal across the energy complex. As the European session approaches, pressure could be seen at the open after reports late in Friday’s session that the new net borrowing within the 2027 German draft budget was 7% higher than projected in April.
JGB Futures trade muted, rotating in a tight 127.05-127.28 range ahead of a large amount of supply this week: JPY 600bln of 30-year JGBs on Tuesday, JPY 2.5tln of 5-year JGBs on Thursday.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

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