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[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX price action lacklustre, CHF and JPY dodge intervention comments, UoM Final ahead

The FX market is exhibiting lackluster price action, particularly with the USD remaining stable ahead of key inflation data next week and an FOMC meeting.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX price action lacklustre, CHF and JPY dodge intervention comments, UoM Final ahead

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  • FX price action is lacklustre on the final trading day of the week. DXY leads marginally, while CHF and JPY are slightly lower. 
  • DXY trades tentatively and broadly in tandem with oil prices. A light calendar ahead with the Fed on blackout ahead of next week's meeting and only UoM final data on the docket. USD-specific news light, though the Japanese Finance Minister said overnight there were no plans to change currency swap lines with the US. Ahead of the Fed meeting next week, ING writes, "5Y5Y USD inflation swap has risen to 2.50% from 2.40% this week – the highest since early February. This could also set us up for a slightly hawkish FOMC meeting next week." DXY still remains supported above 100 and 200 DMAs at 98.50; upside resistance is 98.90, which marks the session high.
  • SNB Chairman Schlegel was on the wires a couple of times. He said they have "unrestricted" room for manoeuvre when it comes to the policy rate and FX intervention - Vice Chair Martin also echoed these remarks. EUR/CHF is unchanged on the session; it attempted to approach 0.92, but the move faltered at 0.9199. Katayama is also on the wires, she said "will take decisive action on speculative activity", JPY unchanged, in a signal that markets are becoming comfortable with the Finance Minister's threats. USD/JPY unchanged, looks at 160 to the upside. BoJ rate decision next week, likely to remain on hold, with all eyes on Governor Ueda's tone at the presser.
  • GBP shrugged off strong UK Retail Sales for March, as it does not change the narrative into next week's BoE, where a hold is the base case. The data showed upside was driven by an increase in fuel sales, with retailers reporting that motorists were filling their tanks when buying following the start of the Middle East conflict. Online sales saw upside and are potentially indicative of a robust spring sale period. However, the core figures were in line/softer-than-expected, and potentially point to some greater-than-expected caution among consumers during the early stages of the Middle East conflict. EUR/GBP and Cable both unchanged, the former on a 0.8670 handle.
Context

The lack of significant currency-specific news suggests market participants are cautious, while comments from Swiss and Japanese officials indicate a potential for intervention if needed. This sets the stage for a focus on upcoming data that may influence the direction of currencies, particularly the USD, CHF, and JPY.

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