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[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10s firm against the Buck into NFP

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Italian Retail Sales YoY (Apr) Y/Y 1.6% (Prev. 3.7%)

UK BBA Mortgage Rate (May) 6.6% (Prev. 6.6%)

[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10s firm against the Buck into NFP

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Tentative action across fixed benchmarks, as markets await US NFP

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude off lows while Washington gives Iran till the end of the week to respond

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  • G10s are all firmer against the Buck, where DXY -0.2% as it respects recent ranges into the US Jobs report. Franc leads, EUR +0.2% and GBP +0.2% also performing well.
  • In a quiet morning session, the Buck has trundled lower from a 99.40 peak to a trough just above 99.20. Today sees the release of May US Jobs data, expected to tick lower to 85k from 115k in April. Recent labour market proxies align with expectations of a cooling in the labour market, as initial jobless claims rose to 225k from 212k, above the top end of the forecast range, while Challenger layoffs rose to 97.006k from 83.387k. Aside from macro data, focus remains on geopolitics, where headlines overnight suggested Washington demanded Tehran deliver its response before the end of the week or be hit with strikes. MUFG notes EUR/USD is vulnerable to a stronger employment print citing the OIS curve in Europe, which they believe is now well priced or even overpriced for what the ECB will deliver. Markets currently assign 14bps of tightening by year-end for the Fed.
  • US JOBS: The US economy is expected to add 85k nonfarm payrolls in May, vs 115k added in April. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, while the annual rate is seen easing to 3.4% from 3.6%. ADP's stronger-than-expected 122k private payrolls print has offered some encouragement, though analysts caution that ADP data tends to deviate from official BLS figures, and that prior pick-ups have proved false signals. Business surveys offer little comfort, with both the ISM manufacturing and services employment sub-indices remaining in contractionary territory. Traders will be watching closely for signs of labour market deterioration, given that FOMC officials view employment risks as tilted to the downside, though Fed officials are seemingly more concerned about the inflation side of its mandate, amid the labour market stability.
  • EUR performs well on the back of the weaker Buck. The likely catalysts today for the single currency will be the US Jobs report, which is expected to cool on a monthly basis. ING, which has an above consensus expectation (100k vs consensus 85k), contends the US print will support the Buck, and potentially enough to price a 25bp hike from the Fed by year-end, widening rate differentials. For EUR specifically, the calendar is light, with GDP 3rd estimate due. ECB’s Governing Council convene next week and are likely to tighten the deposit rate by 25bps in a “one and done” move, according to market pricing. EUR/USD +0.2% firmed throughout the morning after rising from the 1.16 mark.
  • CHF continues to mark gains against the Euro and Buck in wake of May inflation data. EUR/CHF U/C, USD/CHF -0.2%. Antipodeans firmer, but to a lesser extent than cyclicals as metals are lower across the board and amid the general equity risk tone.

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