[MARKET ANALYSIS] Geopolitics keeps crude prices underpinned and metals softer amid a firmer USD

In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is expected to remain involved in ongoing talks with Iran, while dismissing reports of a proposed 3-5 day ceasefire as inaccurate, according to Fox News. The White House Press Secretary echoed this, noting that Trump has not set a firm deadline for an Iranian proposal and reiterating that the reported ceasefire timeline is incorrect, adding that any ceasefire timing would ultimately be determined by Trump.
Meanwhile, Israeli media reports suggest a more urgent timeline. Sources indicated that Washington is aiming to reach concrete understandings with Iran by Sunday, rather than merely initiating negotiations. N12 reported that Trump’s deadline for Iran falls this coming Sunday. Additionally, according to Israel’s Hayom, sources familiar with the Trump administration’s plans claimed that “next stages have already been set,” and reportedly include the end of a ceasefire within days, followed by a significant military strike and several days of continued operations before concluding.
Overnight, crude futures saw an early aggressive move higher, rising by 4% in under 10 minutes, though the upside was faded shortly afterwards, amid a lack of fresh drivers behind the move. This morning, WTI and Brent June futures remain underpinned, with the latter now north of USD 103/bbl (in a USD 101.58-106.15 range). WTI trades around USD 94/bbl in a USD 92.33-97.22/bbl range. Nat gas futures are firmer by around 4% around EUR 45/MWh.
Spot gold and silver are softer as the rise in oil prices keeps the USD supported. Spot gold dipped under its 100 DMA (at USD 4,735.45/oz) again, and currently resides in a USD 4,692-4,754/oz range. Spot silver remains under its 100 DMA (around USD 78.86/oz; ranging between USD 75.57-78.38/oz). Both remain within Tuesday’s parameters.
Base metals are softer across the board amid the USD strength, and inflation concerns arising from the elevated oil prices. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 13,208.20-13,486.00/t range at the time of writing.