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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Gilts opened lower after a GDP beat, USTs await data & Fed speak

The stronger-than-expected GDP data from the UK has led to initial weakness in Gilts, reflecting a growing concern that economic resilience may shift the Bank of England's policy stance.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Gilts opened lower after a GDP beat, USTs await data & Fed speak

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  • A contained start for fixed benchmarks. Haven allure that was helping on Wednesday has been removed by the updates around Iran (see the feed for details).
  • That aside, newsflow has been a little light and largely focused on nation-specifics rather than broader macro drivers; though, TSMC earnings are the exception, again, see the feed for details.
  • USTs have spent the morning in a narrow 112-11 to 112-17+ band, Bunds in equally slim 128.23 to 128.46 confines with both benchmarks flat overall. However, a modest bullish bias is beginning to emerge, more so for EGBs than USTs, potentially as the morning's supply from Spain has now passed and was well received, digestion of the Ukraine-Russia-US situation and/or the pulling back of crude benchmarks weighing on yields. Though, the latter narrative is clouded by the gains in European gas.
  • No move to Germany's 2025 GDP prelim. figure, came in as expected while the prior was subject to an upward revision.
  • Gilts opened marginally softer and then slipped a few ticks further to a 92.67 base despite the firmer lead from EGBs. UK debt weighed on by strong GDP data for November, a series that has the Q4 trend tracking above the BoE's estimate of no growth for the period. However, this pressure proved shortlived with Gilts grinding higher and the marginal outperformer, posting upside of just over 10 ticks. 
  • Ahead, aside from any fresh geopolitical updates, the docket is dominated by US data and Fed speak.
Context

However, as the market digests this information, Gilts are rebounding slightly, suggesting that traders may be reevaluating the potential for sustained growth and its implications for future rate hikes. Overall, this sets the stage for upcoming US data and Fed commentary, which could further influence sentiment across fixed income markets.

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