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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equities find comfort following the two-week ceasefire announcement

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S.

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China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit North Korea on Thursday for a two-day trip at Pyongyang’s invitation, his first since September 2019, SCMP reports

Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reports; origin of the explosion is not known

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equities find comfort following the two-week ceasefire announcement

China has reportedly given additional crude import quotas to independent refiners to maintain fuel production at the mandated 2025 levels

UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 45.6 vs. Exp. 43.9 (Prev. 44.5)

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  • European bourses (STOXX 600 +3.4%) have expressed relief from the announcement of a two-week Iran ceasefire, with all indices gaining by over 2%. To recap, US President Trump announced that he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, while Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The two-week period is to give time to reach an agreement for a sustained halt to strikes, with talks to commence on Friday in Islamabad. The DAX is the outperformer, given its cyclical bias, while the FTSE 100 underperforms slightly due to the presence of oil majors.
  • Sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy and Utilities. Cyclicals benefit the most, with Travel and Leisure, Technology and Consumer Products and Services topping the pile.
  • Maersk is amongst the underperformers. Two reasons for this: 1) expectations of lower freight rates due to the reopening of Hormuz, and 2) CK Hutchison taking the Co. to arbitration over the Panama port. Other movers include miners (Antofagasta, Fresnillo, ArcelorMittal) as metals benefit from the potential return to growth and dovish Fed re-pricing, and banks (Santander, SocGen). Banks have been amongst the worst affected by the Iran war due to the effect of higher energy prices on growth.
  • US equity futures have surged alongside their global peers. ES has now returned to the wide 6635-7063 range that formed in the latter part of 2025, and thus far, finding some resistance at the 50-SMA at 6819.
Context

and Iran has led to a marked relief rally in global equities, particularly benefiting cyclical sectors. This development could shift market sentiment positively, easing concerns over geopolitical risks and enabling renewed growth potential in equities, especially in travel, tech, and consumer sectors.

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