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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Greenback knocked amid hopes of US and Iran returning to negotiations

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  • FX began the morning with a slight positive bias which was exacerbated by reports that US and Iran will return to negotiations later in the week. This report sparked a risk-on move, with crude falling USD 1.7/bbl, DXY marking fresh session lows, and high-beta currencies benefiting. This comes despite extensive reporting from several outlets on the resumption of talks. It is worth noting that the outlet that ran this headline has since tweaked the headline to "could" resume talks, when it previously said "to" resume talks. With regards to date and time, that is not yet confirmed, though Pakistani Journalist Mallick writes "While Islamabad has offered to host the next round of in person talks between US and Iran, which could be held at a working level, to my understanding, date and venue for the next round has not been finalised as yet"
  • The greenback looks to a busy day with US PPI and a packed calendar for Fed speak. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter, Dovish; no text expected) will speak to Yahoo Finance, He is also set to take part in a panel discussion and give remarks to media separately today.
  • Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral; no text), Barr (Voter, Neutral; text expected), Paulson (2026 Voter, Dovish; no text) and Collins (2028 Voter, Neutral; no text expected) are to speak on rural economic development.
  • DXY continues to trade below all significant DMAs after falling below 100- and 200-DMAs in Monday's session. In terms of levels below, 97.87 marks the beginning of the war open, while today's session low was marked at 98.11.