[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices are subdued after slumping yesterday as reports pointed to progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

WTI/Brent: WTI Sep-26 -0.6% / Brent Oct'26 -0.3%

• Oil prices are subdued overnight after sliding yesterday as multiple reports pointed towards progress surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while the latest from Axios noted that the US is aiming to announce a deal as soon as today.

Gold: +0.5%

• Tests the USD 4,100/oz level to the upside after the recent decline in oil dragged the dollar and yields lower.

Copper: -0.1%

• Trades sideways despite the rally in stocks, and with prices not helped by weak Chinese PMI data.

Crude's sensitivity to headlines around the Strait of Hormuz is a recurring pattern: disruption risk embeds a geopolitical premium through freight, insurance, and rerouting costs, and credible talk of reopening tends to unwind that premium quickly, often faster than it was built. The usual sequence in these episodes is a sharp headline-driven move, then a fade or extension depending on whether the reported progress is confirmed by an actual agreement and, critically, by shipping behaviour rather than statements alone. Reported US involvement in brokering a deal fits the historical pattern of Washington acting to contain supply-driven price spikes, though past episodes show the gap between an announcement and restored tanker traffic can be wide. The cross-asset read here is the established one: softer crude has dragged yields and the dollar, which is what is carrying gold toward the round-number level rather than any fresh demand for haven metal. Copper's indifference to the equity bid alongside soft Chinese PMI prints is a familiar split, growth-sensitive metal trading on the demand side while energy trades on supply headlines. Confirmation or denial of a deal announcement is the immediate tell, with tanker tracking data the more reliable signal than official messaging.