US President Trump says in a Fox News interview that the Straits are going to be open very soon and that they are having very good discussions with Iran, but also says if Iran backs out again, they'll be hit very hard

Presidential statements of this kind on the Strait of Hormuz follow a familiar pattern: an assertion of imminent resolution paired with an explicit threat, designed to move both the negotiating counterparty and the crude market simultaneously. The transmission channel is the geopolitical risk premium embedded in the front of the oil curve, plus freight, insurance and tanker rates for Gulf transits, rather than physical supply, which has historically only repriced durably when flows are actually interrupted. Verbal de-escalation from Washington in past episodes of this kind has tended to bleed that premium out gradually and unevenly, with the move prone to reversal on the next contradictory headline from either side, so the distinction worth drawing is between rhetoric and verified reopening of shipping. The tell to watch is whether Tehran confirms the discussions and whether war-risk insurance pricing and tanker fixtures actually ease, since those are the hard signals rather than the interview itself. The conditional threat is the standard bookend in this format and has previously served to keep a floor under the premium even as headlines soften. As commentary rather than action, the signal is directional and the crude and gold reaction, if any, is hostage to follow-through.