[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices continue to climb following the US-Iran geopolitical escalation

WTI/Brent: WTI Oct'26 +1.8% / Brent Nov'26 +2.0%

• Oil prices continued to rally after surging at least 5% yesterday as the US and Iran exchanged a fresh wave of strikes, while US President Trump even warned that if Iran responded, they’ll be hit much harder and that they’re going to be totally wiped out as a country.

Gold: -0.7%

• Continued to decline amid a firmer dollar and higher-yield environment, which saw prices dip beneath the USD 4,300/oz level.

Copper: -1.2%

• Remains pressured with global risk sentiment spooked by the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.

Crude spikes of this size on US-Iran exchanges follow a well-worn sequence: an initial gap on the kinetic headline, a further leg if retaliation is confirmed, and then a repricing that hinges almost entirely on whether physical supply or transit is actually impaired rather than on the rhetoric itself. The distinction that has separated durable moves from faded ones in past Gulf episodes is barrels: threats and limited strikes without infrastructure damage have historically bled out of the prompt spreads within sessions, while anything touching export facilities, tanker traffic through the strait, or insurance and freight rates has sustained backwardation and pulled refining margins with it. The language attributed to the US side here is at the maximalist end of the rhetorical range, which in prior episodes has tended to precede either de-escalation through back channels or a defined second strike; the tell is whether shipping behaviour and war-risk premia move before any further ordnance does. Worth noting the cross-asset texture: gold selling off into a geopolitical escalation is atypical for the classic haven pattern and points to the dollar and real-yield channel dominating, while copper's decline fits the standard growth-sensitive response to Middle East risk. The follow-ons that have historically mattered are any OPEC or producer commentary on spare capacity, freight and insurance quotes, and whether the next exchange is telegraphed or actual.