[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices continue to climb following the US-Iran geopolitical escalation

The distinction that has separated durable moves from faded ones in past Gulf episodes is barrels: threats and limited strikes without infrastructure damage have historically bled out of the prompt spreads within sessions, while anything touching export facilities, tanker traffic through the strait, or insurance and freight rates has sustained backwardation and pulled refining margins with it. The language attributed to the US side here is at the maximalist end of the rhetorical range, which in prior episodes has tended to precede either de-escalation through back channels or a defined second strike; the tell is whether shipping behaviour and war-risk premia move before any further ordnance does. Worth noting the cross-asset texture: gold selling off into a geopolitical escalation is atypical for the classic haven pattern and points to the dollar and real-yield channel dominating, while copper's decline fits the standard growth-sensitive response to Middle East risk. The follow-ons that have historically mattered are any OPEC or producer commentary on spare capacity, freight and insurance quotes, and whether the next exchange is telegraphed or actual.