Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 1st September 2026

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.
• European and US equity futures are pressured by elevated yields; US 10yr (4.78%) holds at highs, whilst the UK 10yr (5.25%) resides at levels not seen since the GFC.
• USD firmer against all G10 currencies with yields rallying on continued energy upside.
• Crude futures continue recent strength; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman. Marisks reported that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed’s Barr & ECB’s Vujcic. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.9%	DAX40	-1.2%
Stoxx 600	-0.7%	FTSE 100	-1.1%
ES Sep'26	-0.6%	RTY Sep'26	-0.6%
NQ Sep'26	-1.1%	YM Sep'26	-0.7%

FX
DXY	+0.2% (99.56)	EUR/USD	-0.2% (1.1597)
USD/JPY	+0.1% (159.96)	GBP/USD	U/C (1.3545)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-5 ticks	Bund Sep'26	-46 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.788%	German 10yr Yield	3.361%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Oct'26	+2.5%	Brent Nov'26	+1.9%
Spot Gold	-1.8%	LME Copper	-0.5%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.9%	Ethereum	-0.7%

As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are underwater on Tuesday (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%) as the continued rise in global bond yields weigh on equities. The upside in energy prices isn't helping either, with the latest that two supertankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz. These confluence of factors (rising yields and energy prices) have constantly been seen throughout the Iran war, which has resulted in European underperformance.
• Sectors have a negative bias. Energy, unsurprisingly, tops the sector pile. Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals round out the sector leaders. To the downside is Travel & Leisure, with Financial Services and Basic Resources completing the sector laggards.
• US equity futures are also under pressure this morning, in line with its European peers. Focus will be on Dell and Palo Alto earnings after-hours.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• Yields driving action across FX today with all major currencies weaker against the Buck (DXY +0.2%). Recent updates sparked a typical geopolitical risk-off reaction with DXY reaching a new 99.63 peak and looking to return to that 99.70 peak seen after Warsh on Friday. The driver was reports via Maritime Risk firm Marisks, which said two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the number of bullish USD factors today, downside risks could emerge again via renewed USD debasement fears, Treasury action to curtail yields, or a soft Payrolls print this Friday.
• Continued upside in energy benchmarks (TTF Oct’26 at EUR 71/MWh) continue to weigh on European currencies with all CEE, Euro and Sterling weaker against the Buck. No EUR move to this morning’s Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs, which saw the EZ majors confirmed in expansion while headline inflation ticked higher to 3.3% as expected. EUR/USD looking to return to the 1.1577 trough which it printed post-Warsh; should this breach, the 100DMA @1.1570 could be tested. For CEE, ING writes this morning that recent hawkish repricing should limit further weakening vs. EUR.
• Cable stopped just short of 1.3530, a zone which has proven support since mid-Aug; the pair also falling through the 21DMA for the third session in a row. All other significant DMAs are below, around the 1.3450 zone.UK yields are in focus with the 10yr at highs of 5.23%, well above the OBR’s March assumption of 4.5%. A former Treasury official notes that these moves, if applied across the curve, are a GBP 6bln increase in debt interest by 2029/30. Parliament is back from recess today with the PM’s Spokesperson scheduled at noon and Burnham himself after 15:30 BST, though no major policy announcements are expected.

FIXED INCOME

• Global fixed benchmarks are in the red this morning, continuing the action seen on Monday. Overnight, JGBs were hit amidst higher energy prices, ongoing fiscal concerns and after Treasury Sec Bessent directly urged the BoJ to hike in September. Despite all this, the 10yr auction was well received, with a 3% yield seemingly enough to feed investor appetite, at least for now.
• USTs (-5 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks, Bunds (-46 ticks) follow suit whilst Gilts (-105 ticks) are the clear underperformer on its return from holiday – in catchup trade to peers. In the European morning, the move lower has extended, with energy prices taking another leg higher on reports that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.
• As mentioned above, global yields have soared to multi-year highs amid higher oil prices, and hawkish Fed repricing. This has spurred somewhat of a negative feedback loop, with higher yields only exacerbating fiscal/debt concerns. The US10yr resides beyond the 4.75% mark (highest since Jan’25), whilst the GE10yr (3.36%) holds at multi-decade highs.
• Aside from energy-dynamics, Bunds have had domestic data to digest. In the morning, German Retail Sales fell more than expected – though spurred little reaction at the time. Thereafter, the EZ-wide Manufacturing PMI saw an incremental revision lower. The report suggested that “a further softening of producer price increases, even in the midst of sustained oil market volatility, helps to alleviate broader inflation worries. That said, the pace of disinflation is starting to level off”. The inflation picture continues to support an ECB rate hike in September, with headline inflation ticking higher to 3.3% Y/Y from 2.9%.
• In the UK, Gilts are the clear underperformer this morning; the UK10yr (5.25%) has reached levels not seen since the GFC. This would be a significant worry heading into the Autumn Budget, which local press is beginning to increase its coverage on. An ex-Treasury official suggested that the 20yr Gilt is 70bps above what is assumed at the Spring Forecast. They noted that if this increase was applied across the curve, it would result in a GBP 6bln debt increase by 2029/30. Therefore, it is clear that PM Burnham and his Chancellor Healey will require a significant decline in yields soon, to allow them to implement some of their key commitments; energy relief, cost of living measures and transport caps. To remind, the Autumn budget will be delivered on 28 October 2026.
• Germany sells EUR 4.281bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.56x (prev. 1.48x), average yield 3.09% (prev. 2.89%), retention 22.16% (prev. 24.1%).
• Japan sells JPY 1.99tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.29x (prev. 2.56x), average yield 2.995% (prev. 2.840%), Tail in price 0.12 vs prev. 0.46.
• Australia sells AUD 300mln in 4.75% June 2054 bonds: avg. yield 5.6657%, b/c 3.68x.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures remain underpinned after yesterday’s gains on the weekend US-Iran flare-up. Price action this morning has been supported by further shipping-related developments. Yesterday, the UKMTO reported an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman, while this morning reports citing Marisks suggested that two oil supertankers had been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, although details remain limited. On the diplomatic front, some downside in oil was seen earlier after the Iranian President struck a less escalatory tone and suggested that “Iran will immediately reciprocate if the US fulfils its commitments under an interim deal signed in June”.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures have ultimately been on a steady grind higher, barring the aforementioned dip on the Iranian President’s comments. WTI resides towards the top of a USD 86.13-88.13/bbl range (vs Monday’s USD 84.11-86.79/bbl band), while Brent sits towards the upper band of USD 90.70-92.55/bbl (vs yesterday’s 89.03-91.52/bbl range).
• Dutch TTF has also been on an upward trajectory after initially finding resistance just under EUR 71.25/MWh, before encountering support near EUR 69.75/MWh, and then moving back to highs.
• Precious metals have been hampered as DXY rises with oil prices once again, whilst demand is likely not helped by Bloomberg reports that Indian PM Modi has told Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary. Spot gold fell under yesterday’s low (USD 4,396/oz) and trades near a current intraday trough at USD 4,370/oz (vs high 4,461/oz), just above its 100 DMA (4,366/oz). Spot silver is back around USD 65/oz after hitting recent highs of USD 71.17/oz two trading sessions ago.
• Base metals are more mixed as the LME returns from its long weekend and plays catch-up. 3M LME copper has been edging lower to trade towards the bottom end of a USD 14,262.43- 14,450.13/t, with price action in line with global peers as COMEX copper posts intraday losses of some 0.7% at the time of writing.
• US President Trump said they will fill up the strategic reserve and will want to do it with Venezuelan oil.
• Venezuelan oil company North American Blue Energy Partners plans to dispatch over 50 drilling rigs in Venezuela in the next few years, according to WSJ.
• Iraq set the floor prices for crude oil cargoes offered via tender for September loadings outside of Hormuz, according to a pricing document.
• Indian PM Modi has told Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary, Bloomberg reported.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US VP Vance said we want to have a positive relationship with China, adding we also recognise that China is a competitor, according to Fox News.
• Brazilian and US officials spoke virtually to discuss tariffs imposed by ‌the Trump administration and agreed to hold further meetings ‌at a later date, according to Reuters

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham will signal fresh measures to help voters with the cost of living on Tuesday, while decisions on welfare are likely to be delayed into next year, according to FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• European HICP (Aug YY) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%); Services 3.0% (prev. 3.3%).
• European HICP (Aug MM) 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%).
• European HICP Supercore (Aug YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%).
• European CPI Ex Food & Energy (Aug Y/Y) 2.1% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.2%).
• European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.9).
• German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 54.3 vs. Exp. 54.1 (Prev. 52.2).
• French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 51.1 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 49.8).
• Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.6 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.3).
• Italian CPI Prel (Aug YY) 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%).
• Italian CPI Prel (Aug MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Italian HICP Preliminary (Aug YY) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.9%).
• Italian HICP Preliminary (Aug MM) 0.1% (Prev. -1.0%).
• Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.2).
• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Aug) 1.5% (Prev. 0.9%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Kocher said that an ECB hike is needed if upside risks are confirmed in the projection.
• ECB's Rehn warned that conflict of attrition in Iran could keep inflation high, according to FT.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Micron's (MU) Taiwanese labour unions are reportedly moving toward a possible strike unless the Co. agrees to reform its bonus system.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Two oil supertankers were reportedly hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Marisks. Bloomberg reported that the VLCC Sidr was hit, and the Senegal Prosperity was also struck, transiting north-east and east of Khasab, Oman, respectively. Earlier, UKMTO noted that it received a report of an incident 17nm east of Khasab, Oman, in which a tanker reported being struck by three unknown projectiles while completing outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO also received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian ocean.
• The Iranian President said that "we will abide by the agreement if America does and that Iran will immediately reciprocate if ⁠the US fulfils its commitments under ‌an interim deal signed in June", Al Jazeera reported citing ISNA.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Europe cannot claim strategic autonomy while following Washington's orders, stressing that true autonomy means making independent decisions.
• Pakistan's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister met with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi in an informal manner in Bishek at the holding room of the SCO Council of Head of States, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
• Gulf Corporation Council condemned Iran's attacks on Jordan, saying they pose a direct threat to the security and stability of the region, according to Al Jazeera.
• Yemeni armed forces targeted early on Tuesday the bases of Saudi and Emirati mercenaries in Al Makha and Al Khuwakh located in the southwest of the country, according to IRIB.
• Hapag-Lloyd’s (HLAG GY) CEO said it is reasonable to expect the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Russia's Finance Minister Siluanov the US will not provide Russia with economic relief until the Ukraine war ends, according to a source familiar with the bilateral meeting.
• The UK government said Chancellor Healey called on allies to step up their pressure on Russia and set out new action to stop Russian President Putin evading sanctions to fund his illegal war. The Chancellor will double the maximum fine available to the OFSI from 50% to 100% of the value of a sanctions breach.
• Russian Foreign Ministry said a Black Sea ceasefire would only push prospects for a peaceful settlement further away, IFX reported.
• Ukraine said Russia struck port infrastructure in the southern Odessa area.
• Explosions were reportedly heard in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.
• Ukraine's Air Force said UAVs were detected heading towards Zaporizhzhia.
• Poland intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea.

OTHER

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow will take countermeasures if US weapons are deployed in Japan, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iran and Chinese Foreign Ministers reportedly held talks in Kyrgyzstan during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Al Jazeera reported.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin remains contained within Monday's range of USD 77.75k-79.2k. Investors highlight the gap between BTC prices on South Korean exchanges and global markets, known as the "Kimchi premium". The gap currently shows a 1% premium, indicating that appetite for risk has returned into the crypto market.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded with a mild negative bias amid higher prices and yields following the recent geopolitical flare-up, although some of the losses were stemmed as participants also digested recent data.
• ASX 200 was pressured amid underperformance in the consumer, tech and telecom sectors, while Australia's 10yr yield was at its highest since 2011, but with downside in the index stemmed amid strength in the commodity-related industries and after better-than-expected data.
• Nikkei 225 traded indecisively but was off earlier lows and briefly turned positive as headwinds from higher yields were partially offset by better-than-expected Company Sales and Profits data, while a Ministry of Finance senior official said the BoJ is expected to steer monetary policy aligned with the economy and not influenced by the US, in response to a recent report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed.
• KOSPI initially dropped but then gradually returned to flat territory amid light pertinent newsflow and with indecisive performances in the tech heavyweights.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark underperformed amid weakness in some big platform names and property stocks, while sentiment was also not helped by a weak debut for fast fashion retailer Shein. Conversely, the downside in the mainland was cushioned by stronger-than-expected RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK.
• A Japanese MoF senior official said they expect the BoJ to steer monetary policy aligned with the economy and not influenced by the US.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he is closely watching market moves and that rising interest rate costs risks fiscal rigidity. Will re-examine the fiscal scale and control the annual issuance of JGBs.
• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said he aims to appropriately control total bond issuance, adding that he cannot yet provide details on next fiscal year's budget and declines to comment on foreign officials' remarks.
• Fitch said China’s mortgage easing is unlikely to significantly revive housing demand as high inventories and weak buyer confidence continue to weigh on the property market.
• China issued new guidelines requiring automakers operating overseas to price vehicles and components lawfully.
• Chinese Finance Ministry is to set a 20% tax level on foreign individuals' dividend income.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 50.9).
• Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 54.9 vs. Exp. 55.1 (Prev. 55.1).
• Japanese Consumer Confidence (Aug) 35.5 vs. Exp. 35 (Prev. 34.9).
• Japanese Capital Spending (Q2 YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%).
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug) 52.0 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.0).
• South Korean Trade Balance (Aug) 34.75B vs. Exp. 30.7B (Prev. 30.32B).
• South Korean Exports (Aug YY) 68.7% vs. Exp. 62.6% (Prev. 63.0%).
• South Korean Imports (Aug YY) 22.5% vs. Exp. 24.7% (Prev. 26.5%).