[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices marginally extend on gains amid geopolitical uncertainty and as Iran digs in its heels regarding Hormuz reopening

Strait of Hormuz rhetoric is a recurring feature of Gulf tension episodes, and the pattern historically is that the threat of closure carries a larger premium than closure itself, since actual disruption to flows through the strait has rarely been sustained for long even at moments of high tension. The relevant transmission channel is freight, insurance and tanker availability rather than any immediate loss of supply, with war-risk premia in crude tending to build quickly and bleed out slowly, and attacks in the Bab Al-Mandab and Gulf of Oman reinforcing that channel rather than adding a separate one. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetorical escalation, which has typically faded, and any incident touching physical infrastructure or tanker traffic, which is the threshold at which premia have become more durable. Gold's behaviour alongside crude fits the established safe-haven pairing in geopolitical episodes, with the incoming US inflation report the competing driver given how sensitive the metal has been to the real-rate path. Copper's sideways tape, caught between geopolitical risk aversion and the growth bid, is the standard tell that this is being treated as a headline-risk event rather than a macro one. The follow-ons to watch are further vessel incidents, any US-Iran back-channel, and whether the premium starts showing in timespreads rather than just flat price.