[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices pullback on reports the US and Iran discussed a phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end the blockade

The distinction that matters is between an agreement in principle and an actual resumption of flows: through past episodes involving Hormuz and similar transit risks, it is confirmed physical passage of cargoes, not diplomatic language, that has durably removed the premium, while talks alone have tended to produce partial retracements that reverse on any setback. A phased structure with stated conditions and a defined window leaves room for stalling, and Iranian proposals routed through mediators have historically had a mixed record of converting into US acceptance. The transmission runs through freight and insurance costs on Gulf loadings as much as through the flat price, so war-risk premia and tanker rates are the cleaner tell than the screen alone. Worth watching is whether the reported conditions are met or lapse within the stated window, and whether official confirmation follows from either capital, since unconfirmed wire reports of this kind have frequently been walked back.