[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY pauses after gaining on several factors including higher yields, strong data and hawkish Fed speak

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY pauses after gaining on several factors including higher yields, strong data and hawkish Fed speak

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DXY: Flat

  • Pauses overnight after gaining yesterday alongside sharp rises in global yields, stronger-than-expected US data, and growing economic pressure for Europe and APAC FX if the US goes ahead with a US diesel export ban, while further Fed speak pointed towards another hike, with Governor Barr noting that further rate hikes are likely needed to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target.

EUR/USD: Flat

  • Lingers near a monthly low following its recent slide beneath the 1.1400 handle and following recent comments from ECB officials that noted there was no major wage response, nor second-round effects from the energy shock.

GBP/USD: Flat

  • Lacks demand after slumping to sub-1.3300 territory alongside the prior day's underperformance in cyclical currencies and with headwinds following the reports of a potential US diesel export ban.

USD/JPY: -0.2%

  • Pulled back beneath the 158.00 level overnight as Japanese participants returned to the market for the first time this week and with Japanese yields rising across the curve.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD Flat / NZD/USD +0.1%

  • Price action is range-bound following recent underperformance and with AUD/USD indecisive after mixed jobs data in which headline Employment Change topped forecast, but was solely due to part-time work, while the Unemployment Rate slightly increased to its highest in around 5 years and coincided with a higher Participation Rate.
Context

This is a consolidated recap of a broad dollar bid rather than fresh news, and episodes of this kind share a recognisable anatomy: a rising US front end and hawkish-leaning Fed commentary widen rate differentials against the low-yielders and the energy importers, while the dollar's role as the funding and trade currency compounds the move once growth scares outside the US enter the picture. The distinction worth drawing in the note is between the drivers: the yield and Fed-speak component reprices the front end differential in a way that tends to persist, whereas the reported diesel export ban angle hits Europe and APAC through the trade and energy-balance channel and is far more binary, reversing sharply if the policy does not materialise. On the crosses, the pattern is familiar: the euro's slide on officials downplaying wage pass-through echoes past cycles where central banks diverging on second-round effects sustained multi-week trends, and yen pullbacks when Japanese participants return after holidays alongside rising domestic yields have historically been partial and tactical, not a break of the broader trend, given the persistence of the policy gap. The Australian jobs print, a headline beat composed entirely of part-time work with a rising unemployment rate on higher participation, is the kind of mixed release that markets have typically looked through after an initial wobble, treating the unemployment rate as the cleaner signal. Follow-ons are further Fed commentary for whether the hawkish framing reflects the committee's centre of gravity, any confirmation or denial on the export ban, and whether global yields continue to lead or stall at these levels. As an overnight digest the note carries no new information; the signal is in which of the three drivers proves durable.

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