[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices remain pressured after dlumping 5% yesterday amid Iran-Oman consultations on Hormuz and with Russian press suggesting a looming US-Iran ceasefire announcement

Crude moves of this size on diplomatic headlines follow a familiar template: a geopolitical risk premium built over an escalation phase unwinds quickly once de-escalation signals emerge, and the speed of the prior day's decline is consistent with positioning rather than any change in physical balances. The Strait of Hormuz is the key transmission channel, since a large share of seaborne crude transits it, and premiums on freight, war-risk insurance and prompt spreads typically compress ahead of flat price when navigation risk fades. The unconfirmed ceasefire report, sourced to Russian press without mainstream corroboration, fits a recurring pattern in these episodes where initial reports are denied or delayed before any agreement is formalised, and past rounds of Gulf de-escalation have tended to proceed in stops and starts rather than a single announcement. The tell for whether the premium is genuinely deflating lies in the front of the curve and in time spreads: a sustained narrowing of backwardation would confirm that supply-disruption pricing is being removed rather than merely paused. Sanctions posture is the other leg, since underwhelming enforcement measures have historically mattered more for flows than the announcements themselves. Worth noting is the divergence with gold, which is holding near flat into a major central bank event, suggesting the move is oil-specific rather than a broad risk repricing.