[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil surges and gold climbs following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and the latter's retaliation

WTI/Brent: WTI Apr'26 +3.6% / Brent +4.1%

• Oil prices surged at the reopen in reaction to the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East owing to the strikes against Iran and killing of its Supreme Leader, as well as its retaliation on neighbours and announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices are well off their opening highs with Brent and WTI returning to beneath the USD 80/bbl and 70/bbl levels, respectively, as participants second-guess how long the disruption will last, while it was also reported over the weekend that OPEC+ decided to resume oil output increases with a 206bpd increase starting in April.

Gold: +0.9%

• Rallied on a haven bid but then mildly pulled back after stalling just shy of the USD 5,400/oz level.

Copper: -0.4%

• Ultimately weakened in choppy trade amid the mostly negative risk appetite in the region, with all focus on geopolitics.

The recent military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran have triggered a sharp increase in oil and gold prices, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and investor flight to safety. However, despite the initial surge, oil prices have retreated as market participants reassess the potential duration of supply disruptions amid OPEC's plans to increase output, indicating that volatility may persist in energy markets. This situation could have broader implications for global risk sentiment and commodity pricing as tensions continue to evolve.