[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil whipsaws amid Strait of Hormuz and IEA reports

WTI/Brent: WTI Apr'26 -0.2% / Brent May'26 +0.2%

• Oil prices are indecisive following the declines seen during the prior session where there was some whipsawing on reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with a bout of selling pressure seen after US Energy Secretary Wright posted that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, although oil then pared some of the losses as the post was deleted shortly after, and the White House confirmed that this was false. There was a further paring of losses after CBS reported that US intelligence had begun to see indications that Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IEA meeting also ended with no decision on a crude stockpile release. This provided oil futures with a higher platform to begin the Asia-Pac session, although the gains were then wiped out after a WSJ article that the IEA has proposed the largest ever release of oil from strategic reserves to bring down the price of crude and that countries will decide today whether to release oil stocks.

Gold: +0.3%

• Mildly gained and returned to above the USD 5,200/oz level, with the precious metal kept afloat alongside the recent easing in oil price pressures.

Copper: -0.4%

• Trades rangebound with demand subdued amid the ongoing geopolitical climate and as its largest buyer, China, lags behind regional peers.

Oil price fluctuations reflect a complex geopolitical landscape, particularly influenced by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The initial panic stemming from conflicting U.S. Navy reports contrasted with signs of potential mine deployments by Iran, while the IEA's indecisiveness on releasing reserves added to the uncertainty. This volatility underscores how geopolitical tensions can quickly alter trading dynamics in energy markets, impacting broader market sentiment and related commodities.