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[MARKET ANALYSIS] President Trump reportedly "unlikely" to accept Iran's proposal, helping to lift energy prices

President Trump's reported reluctance to accept Iran's proposal signals ongoing geopolitical tension, which is lifting energy prices as traders anticipate potential supply issues.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] President Trump reportedly "unlikely" to accept Iran's proposal, helping to lift energy prices

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  • Crude prices are once again on a stronger footing this morning, with a number of sentiment-hitting headlines helping to lift demand for energy. In brief, CNN reported that President Trump is not satisfied with the Iranian proposal, adding that he is unlikely to accept it. But the piece did suggest that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem. Thereafter, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister would not return to Pakistan following his visit to Russia, adding that he would only head back to the region if his team thinks there is “headway in talks”. This helped to spur some strength in both WTI and Brent, by around a USD 1/bbl.
  • As it stands, WTI holds at the upper end of a USD 96.24-98.51/bbl range, whilst Brent sits at the upper end of a USD 107.81-111.86/bbl range.
  • Sticking with geopols, but over in Europe, Ukraine said that it had struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery. It is considered amongst the top 10 largest in the country, with a capacity of 240k BPD. Elsewhere, on the supply front, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia may cut its June OSP to Asia, citing easing demand.
  • Amidst the elongated war, ING has upwardly revised its Brent forecast to USD 104/bbl (prev. USD 96/bbl) through Q2’26, before gradually waning back towards USD 92/bbl over Q4’26. This is based on a scenario where negotiations drag on for some time before a deal is reached.
  • Spot gold is lower this morning, by around a percent, and currently resides towards the lower end of a USD 4,614-4,701/oz range. Ultimately, spot gold has been pressured throughout the Iranian conflict, given the inflationary implications – a theme which appears to have played out today; the mild strength in USD this morning is also a factor.
  • Base metals also hold a negative bias – likely hampered by the downbeat risk tone seen during overnight trade. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,105.98-13,264/t range.
Context

This, combined with news of Ukraine striking a significant Russian refinery, highlights the fragility of the energy markets, reinforcing a bullish sentiment for crude such as WTI and Brent. Overall, expect heightened volatility in energy assets as developments unfold in the region.

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