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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Strong headline US payrolls for March, with the economy performing well in the face of uncertainty.

The strong US payrolls report shows robust job growth significantly exceeding expectations, suggesting resilience in the economy amid uncertainty.

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  • Headline payrolls comfortably topped expectations, printing a bumper 178k (exp. 60k), while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% (it was expected to remain unchanged). The wage stats saw some cooling too (monthly average hourly earnings grew by +0.2% M/M vs exp. +0.3%, while the annual rate fell to 3.5% Y/Y from 3.8%).While the data appears somewhat Fed-friendly (strong jobs growth, cooling wages metrics), it is worth noting that participation slipped to 61.9% from 62%, which may explain some of the downside in the jobless rate, while U6 unemployment ticked up to 8% from 7.9%, and average workweek hours eased to 34.2hrs from 34.3hrs. Recently, some Fed officials have cautioned against reading into one single jobs report, particularly given the saw-tooth nature of the data over the last few months; the revisions to the prior months' data were a minimal -7k in March. Under the bonnet, private payrolls did most of the heavy lifting, printing +186k (exp. +70k), while manufacturing payrolls also saw an addition of +15k (exp. -5k); meanwhile, government payrolls slipped by 8k (exp. -5k).
  • WSJ Fedwatcher Timiraos has noted that over the first three months of the year, the economy has added 15k jobs on average over the last six months, and 68k per month so far in 2026; it is worth highlighting a recent St. Louis Fed update on its breakeven range estimates, which now sees the breakeven payroll growth range at between 15-87k/month.
  • Analysts said that the data continues to paint a picture of the US economy that is performing well in the face of uncertainty, however, policymakers may still be reticent to loosen policy further until there is further clarity that inflation is moving towards target, and there are no long-term impacts from the Middle East conflicts.
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Despite this, cooling wage growth and a slight increase in the broader unemployment rate indicate mixed signals for inflation outlook, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance moving forward.

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