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[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are rangebound after the recent bear flattening on oil related pressures

T-note futures are currently rangebound, reflecting a bear flattening trend influenced by rising oil pressures.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are rangebound after the recent bear flattening on oil related pressures

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USTs: -1.5 ticks

  • Trade rangebound after the prior day's bear flattening, led by the front-end, in response to oil prices.

Bunds: +10 ticks

  • Rebounded from the prior day's early trough but with upside capped by resistance at the 126.00 level, while participants also await incoming German ZEW data and supply.

JGBs: ticks

  • Remained afloat following recent BoJ source reports that the central bank will likely refrain from hiking rates this month, although gains are limited ahead of an enhanced liquidity auction for long to super-long JGBs.
Context

This scenario indicates limited movement in U.S. Treasuries as market participants gauge the implications of oil price fluctuations and await significant data releases, particularly from the German ZEW, which could further affect fixed income sentiment. Additionally, the JGB market shows resilience due to expectations regarding the BoJ's rate stance, even as gains are moderated ahead of upcoming liquidity events.

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